arXiv:2602.13871math.STcs.IT2026-02

将集合滤波与高斯过程结合,统一了概率推断的多种视角。

Ensemble-Conditional Gaussian Processes (Ens-CGP): Representation, Geometry, and Inference

  • 用集合样本矩构造先验,精确条件化得到新模型
  • 在线性高斯设定下等价于卡尔曼滤波和最大后验估计
  • 适合做同化、融合与不确定性量化研究者参考

本文提出集合条件高斯过程(Ens-CGP),一种基于集合推断的有限维合成方法,以条件高斯律为核心。条件高斯过程(CGP)直接源于高斯过程的条件化,在线性高斯设置下可完整描述高斯先验与线性观测下的后验分布。经典卡尔曼滤波是在动态假设下计算该条件律的递归算法;因此,条件高斯律是基础表示对象,而滤波器仅为一种计算实现。在此意义上,CGP为卡尔曼类方法提供了概率基础,并等价于严格凸二次规划(最大后验估计)、再生核希尔伯特空间正则化回归及经典正则化形式。Ens-CGP 是该对象的集合实例,通过将经验集合矩视为(可能低秩)高斯先验并进行精确条件化获得。通过分离表示(高斯过程 → 条件高斯过程 → Ens-CGP)与计算(卡尔曼滤波、集合卡尔曼滤波变体、迭代集合方案),该框架将早期建立的推断表示基础与集合衍生先验相连接,澄清了概率、变分与集合视角间的关联。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We formulate Ensemble-Conditional Gaussian Processes (Ens-CGP), a finite-dimensional synthesis that centers ensemble-based inference on the conditional Gaussian law. Conditional Gaussian processes (CGP) arise directly from Gaussian processes under conditioning and, in linear-Gaussian settings, define the full posterior distribution for a Gaussian prior and linear observations. Classical Kalman filtering is a recursive algorithm that computes this same conditional law under dynamical assumptions; the conditional Gaussian law itself is therefore the underlying representational object, while the filter is one computational realization. In this sense, CGP provides the probabilistic foundation for Kalman-type methods as well as equivalent formulations as a strictly convex quadratic program (MAP estimation), RKHS-regularized regression, and classical regularization. Ens-CGP is the ensemble instantiation of this object, obtained by treating empirical ensemble moments as a (possibly low-rank) Gaussian prior and performing exact conditioning. By separating representation (GP -> CGP -> Ens-CGP) from computation (Kalman filters, EnKF variants, and iterative ensemble schemes), the framework links an earlier-established representational foundation for inference to ensemble-derived priors and clarifies the relationships among probabilistic, variational, and ensemble perspectives.

高斯过程集合滤波概率推断卡尔曼滤波

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