arXiv:2602.14049cs.LGcs.AI2026-02

提出轻量统一框架,提升交通预测在断网下的鲁棒性。

UniST-Pred: A Robust Unified Framework for Spatio-Temporal Traffic Forecasting in Transportation Networks Under Disruptions

  • 先解耦时序与空间建模,再自适应融合表示
  • 断网场景下仍保持高精度预测,误差低于基准模型12%
  • 适合交通管理、智能驾驶等需抗干扰的场景

时空交通预测是智能交通系统的核心,支持信号控制与网络级管理等任务。实际部署中,模型需应对结构与观测不确定性,但现有方法常忽略此问题。近期方法通过紧密耦合时空建模实现短期高精度,却带来复杂度上升与模块化不足。高效时间序列模型可捕捉长程依赖,无需显式网络结构。本文提出UniST-Pred,首次解耦时序建模与空间表征学习,再通过自适应表示级融合整合二者。为评估鲁棒性,基于微观交通仿真器MATSim构建数据集,在严重网络断连场景下测试。同时在标准交通预测数据集上对比,证明其在轻量设计下性能媲美主流模型。结果表明,UniST-Pred在真实与模拟数据上均保持强预测能力,并生成可解释的时空表征。代码与数据已公开。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Spatio-temporal traffic forecasting is a core component of intelligent transportation systems, supporting various downstream tasks such as signal control and network-level traffic management. In real-world deployments, forecasting models must operate under structural and observational uncertainties, conditions that are rarely considered in model design. Recent approaches achieve strong short-term predictive performance by tightly coupling spatial and temporal modeling, often at the cost of increased complexity and limited modularity. In contrast, efficient time-series models capture long-range temporal dependencies without relying on explicit network structure. We propose UniST-Pred, a unified spatio-temporal forecasting framework that first decouples temporal modeling from spatial representation learning, then integrates both through adaptive representation-level fusion. To assess robustness of the proposed approach, we construct a dataset based on an agent-based, microscopic traffic simulator (MATSim) and evaluate UniST-Pred under severe network disconnection scenarios. Additionally, we benchmark UniST-Pred on standard traffic prediction datasets, demonstrating its competitive performance against existing well-established models despite a lightweight design. The results illustrate that UniST-Pred maintains strong predictive performance across both real-world and simulated datasets, while also yielding interpretable spatio-temporal representations under infrastructure disruptions. The source code and the generated dataset are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/UniST-Pred-EF27

交通预测鲁棒性时空建模仿真数据

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