用迁移学习实现跨家庭热水需求预测,省时又精准。
Cross-household Transfer Learning Approach with LSTM-based Demand Forecasting
- 从代表性家庭迁移知识,微调预测其他家庭用水需求。
- 训练时间减少67%,预测准确率0.874~0.991,误差仅0.001~0.017。
- 适合大规模智能热水器部署,尤其源家庭用水规律性强时效果更佳。
随着住宅热泵(HP)安装量迅速增加,优化家庭热水生产至关重要,但面临技术和可扩展性挑战。将生产适配实际需求需准确预测热水需求以保障舒适并减少能源浪费。传统方法为每户单独训练模型,在云连接热泵部署中计算成本高昂。本研究提出DELTAiF框架,基于迁移学习(TL),实现可扩展且高精度的家用热水消耗预测。通过预测如淋浴等大用量事件,该框架支持家庭级自适应、可扩展的热水生产。其利用代表性家庭学习到的知识,并在其他家庭上进行微调,无需为每个热泵安装单独训练模型。该方法使总体训练时间减少约67%,同时保持预测准确率在0.874至0.991之间,平均绝对百分比误差在0.001至0.017之间。结果表明,当源家庭具有规律性消费模式时,迁移学习尤为有效,可实现大规模热水需求预测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
With the rapid increase in residential heat pump (HP) installations, optimizing hot water production in households is essential, yet it faces major technical and scalability challenges. Adapting production to actual household needs requires accurate forecasting of hot water demand to ensure comfort and, most importantly, to reduce energy waste. However, the conventional approach of training separate machine learning models for each household becomes computationally expensive at scale, particularly in cloud-connected HP deployments. This study introduces DELTAiF, a transfer learning (TL) based framework that provides scalable and accurate prediction of household hot water consumption. By predicting large hot water usage events, such as showers, DELTAiF enables adaptive yet scalable hot water production at the household level. DELTAiF leverages learned knowledge from a representative household and fine-tunes it across others, eliminating the need to train separate machine learning models for each HP installation. This approach reduces overall training time by approximately 67 percent while maintaining high predictive accuracy values between 0.874 and 0.991, and mean absolute percentage error values between 0.001 and 0.017. The results show that TL is particularly effective when the source household exhibits regular consumption patterns, enabling hot water demand forecasting at scale.
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