arXiv:2602.14279cs.LGcs.AI2026-02

用大模型动态选人问问题,更省力地猜准群体意见。

Whom to Query for What: Adaptive Group Elicitation via Multi-Turn LLM Interactions

  • 根据回答不确定性动态选问题和人选,结合图神经网络补全缺失数据。
  • 在10%受访预算下,对真实民意数据的预测准确率提升超12%。
  • 适合需要低成本获取群体观点的研究者或决策机构使用。

从调查等集体评估中获取关于群体属性的不确定信息,需在实际成本和数据缺失条件下合理分配有限的提问资源。尽管大语言模型支持自然语言下的多轮交互,但现有方法通常固定受访者池,无法动态调整人选,也未利用人群结构来处理部分响应。为此,本文研究自适应群体获取,即在多轮互动中,在明确的查询与参与预算下,智能选择问题和受访者。提出一个理论完备的框架:(i)基于大模型的期望信息增益目标用于评分候选问题;(ii)异构图神经网络传播机制聚合已知回答与参与者属性,以推断缺失值并指导每轮人选选择。该闭环流程仅询问少量高价值个体,即可通过结构化相似性推断整体群体响应。在三个真实世界意见数据集上,本方法在受限预算下持续提升群体响应预测效果,包括在CES数据集上于10%受访者预算下实现超过12%的相对性能提升。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about latent group-level properties from surveys and other collective assessments requires allocating limited questioning effort under real costs and missing data. Although large language models enable adaptive, multi-turn interactions in natural language, most existing elicitation methods optimize what to ask with a fixed respondent pool, and do not adapt respondent selection or leverage population structure when responses are partial or incomplete. To address this gap, we study adaptive group elicitation, a multi-round setting where an agent adaptively selects both questions and respondents under explicit query and participation budgets. We propose a theoretically grounded framework that combines (i) an LLM-based expected information gain objective for scoring candidate questions with (ii) heterogeneous graph neural network propagation that aggregates observed responses and participant attributes to impute missing responses and guide per-round respondent selection. This closed-loop procedure queries a small, informative subset of individuals while inferring population-level responses via structured similarity. Across three real-world opinion datasets, our method consistently improves population-level response prediction under constrained budgets, including a >12% relative gain on CES at a 10% respondent budget.

群体推断大模型应用自适应采样

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