用因果必要性与充分性评估解释可信度,提升石油勘探模型的可信赖性。
A unified framework for evaluating the robustness of machine-learning interpretability for prospect risking
- 基于因果理论定义特征必要性与充分性,统一评估XAI解释
- 在高维结构化数据上验证了LIME与SHAP解释的鲁棒性差异
- 适用于油气勘探中需高可信解释的复杂机器学习场景
在地球物理学中,油气前景风险评估需整合多源数据。近年来,基于表格数据的机器学习分类器被用于加速决策。但模型决策过程缺乏透明性,催生了可解释人工智能(XAI)。LIME和SHAP是两种典型XAI方法,通过特征重要性排序生成解释。然而,二者对同一场景的解释常不一致,尤其在复杂数据中,因“重要性”与“相关性”的定义不同所致。因此,基于有理论支撑的因果必要性与充分性来验证特征排名,可提升解释的可靠性。本文提出统一框架,生成反事实样本并量化必要性与充分性,用于评估LIME与SHAP在高维结构化油气前景风险数据上的解释鲁棒性。该测试揭示了模型处理错误数据的能力,并明确了何种XAI模块与何种模型在本数据集上搭配更优。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In geophysics, hydrocarbon prospect risking involves assessing the risks associated with hydrocarbon exploration by integrating data from various sources. Machine learning-based classifiers trained on tabular data have been recently used to make faster decisions on these prospects. The lack of transparency in the decision-making processes of such models has led to the emergence of explainable AI (XAI). LIME and SHAP are two such examples of these XAI methods which try to generate explanations of a particular decision by ranking the input features in terms of importance. However, explanations of the same scenario generated by these two different explanation strategies have shown to disagree or be different, particularly for complex data. This is because the definitions of "importance" and "relevance" differ for different explanation strategies. Thus, grounding these ranked features using theoretically backed causal ideas of necessity and sufficiency can prove to be a more reliable and robust way to improve the trustworthiness of the concerned explanation strategies.We propose a unified framework to generate counterfactuals as well as quantify necessity and sufficiency and use these to perform a robustness evaluation of the explanations provided by LIME and SHAP on high dimensional structured prospect risking data. This robustness test gives us deeper insights into the models capabilities to handle erronous data and which XAI module works best in pair with which model for our dataset for hydorcarbon indication.
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