arXiv:2602.14744cs.CL2026-02被引 3

大模型能显著提升时间序列预测,尤其在跨领域场景下效果突出。

Rethinking the Role of LLMs in Time Series Forecasting

  • 在80亿数据上验证多种对齐策略,发现预对齐优于后对齐
  • 大模型在跨域泛化中提升明显,长时序预测性能更优
  • 适合需要复杂动态建模和跨领域适应的预测任务

大型语言模型(LLMs)被引入时间序列预测(TSF),以融入数值信号之外的上下文知识。现有研究质疑其实际收益,常报告与不使用大模型时性能相当。我们发现这些结论源于评估范围有限,无法反映真实规模下的表现。本研究在包含80亿观测值、17种预测场景、4个预测时距、多种对齐策略及域内/域外设置的大规模实验中,验证了基于大模型的时间序列预测(LLM4TSF)确实可提升性能,尤其在跨域泛化中增益显著。预对齐在超过90%的任务中优于后对齐。预训练知识与模型架构均起关键作用且互补:预训练在分布偏移下至关重要,而架构擅长捕捉复杂时序动态。在大规模混合分布下,完整大模型成为必需,经逐标记路由分析与提示优化进一步验证。研究推翻以往负面评价,明确了大模型有效应用的条件,并为模型设计提供实践指导。代码已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting comparable performance without LLMs. We show that such conclusions stem from limited evaluation settings and do not hold at scale. We conduct a large-scale study of LLM-based TSF (LLM4TSF) across 8 billion observations, 17 forecasting scenarios, 4 horizons, multiple alignment strategies, and both in-domain and out-of-domain settings. Our results demonstrate that \emph{LLM4TS indeed improves forecasting performance}, with especially large gains in cross-domain generalization. Pre-alignment outperforming post-alignment in over 90\% of tasks. Both pretrained knowledge and model architecture of LLMs contribute and play complementary roles: pretraining is critical under distribution shifts, while architecture excels at modeling complex temporal dynamics. Moreover, under large-scale mixed distributions, a fully intact LLM becomes indispensable, as confirmed by token-level routing analysis and prompt-based improvements. Overall, Our findings overturn prior negative assessments, establish clear conditions under which LLMs are not only useful, and provide practical guidance for effective model design. We release our code at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/LLM4TSF.

时间序列大模型跨域泛化预测

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