arXiv:2602.15782cs.CV2026-02

融合天空图像与气象数据,提升光伏功率预测精度。

Meteorological data and Sky Images meets Neural Models for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

  • 多模态融合天空图像、气象数据与历史发电量。
  • 云天条件下预测误差显著降低,尤其提升陡增事件捕捉能力。
  • 适合电力调度与可再生能源管理场景使用。

随着太阳能等可再生能源的广泛应用,如何应对光伏发电的波动性成为关键挑战。本文提出一种混合方法,结合天空图像、历史发电数据与多源气象信息,用于短期和长期光伏功率预测。通过深度神经网络模型,整合地表长波辐射、风速及太阳位置等变量,显著提升在阴天条件下的预测准确率,尤其强化了对发电突变事件的识别能力。实验表明,引入气象数据(特别是向下长波辐射)与风速-太阳位置组合,能有效改善现在预报与中长期预测性能,增强模型在复杂天气下的鲁棒性与可解释性,为电网高效运行和太阳能资源管理提供支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Due to the rise in the use of renewable energies as an alternative to traditional ones, and especially solar energy, there is increasing interest in studying how to address photovoltaic forecasting in the face of the challenge of variability in photovoltaic energy production, using different methodologies. This work develops a hybrid approach for short and long-term forecasting based on two studies with the same purpose. A multimodal approach that combines images of the sky and photovoltaic energy history with meteorological data is proposed. The main goal is to improve the accuracy of ramp event prediction, increase the robustness of forecasts in cloudy conditions, and extend capabilities beyond nowcasting, to support more efficient operation of the power grid and better management of solar variability. Deep neural models are used for both nowcasting and forecasting solutions, incorporating individual and multiple meteorological variables, as well as an analytical solar position. The results demonstrate that the inclusion of meteorological data, particularly the surface long-wave, radiation downwards, and the combination of wind and solar position, significantly improves current predictions in both nowcasting and forecasting tasks, especially on cloudy days. This study highlights the importance of integrating diverse data sources to improve the reliability and interpretability of solar energy prediction models.

光伏预测多模态融合气象数据深度学习

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。