从用户部分排名中学习偏好,纠正曝光偏差,提升推荐效果。
Learning Preference from Observed Rankings
- 将排名转化为成对比较,用逻辑回归建模选择概率。
- 改进推荐准确率,尤其在预测新商品购买上效果显著。
- 适合做个性化推荐与消费行为分析的研究者使用。
估计消费者偏好是经济学和营销中的核心问题。本文提出一种灵活框架,通过将观测到的排名解释为带有逻辑选择概率的成对比较,从部分排名信息中学习个体偏好。模型将潜在效用分解为可解释的产品属性、物品固定效应及低秩用户-物品因子结构,兼顾可解释性与跨用户/物品的信息共享。进一步校正观测偏倚:仅当两个商品同时进入消费者考虑集合时才会被记录,导致高频商品更易被观察。通过建模成对可观测性为物品级可观测倾向的乘积,并用逻辑回归估计边际可观测概率,最终通过最大化逆概率加权(IPW)的岭回归似然函数估计偏好参数,使样本权重趋向目标比较群体。为提高计算效率,提出基于逆概率重采样的随机梯度下降算法,按权重比例抽取比较项。在某在线葡萄酒零售商交易数据上的应用显示,该方法相比流行度基准显著提升外样本推荐性能,尤其在预测未消费过商品的购买行为上优势明显。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Estimating consumer preferences is central to many problems in economics and marketing. This paper develops a flexible framework for learning individual preferences from partial ranking information by interpreting observed rankings as collections of pairwise comparisons with logistic choice probabilities. We model latent utility as the sum of interpretable product attributes, item fixed effects, and a low-rank user-item factor structure, enabling both interpretability and information sharing across consumers and items. We further correct for selection in which comparisons are observed: a comparison is recorded only if both items enter the consumer's consideration set, inducing exposure bias toward frequently encountered items. We model pair observability as the product of item-level observability propensities and estimate these propensities with a logistic model for the marginal probability that an item is observable. Preference parameters are then estimated by maximizing an inverse-probability-weighted (IPW), ridge-regularized log-likelihood that reweights observed comparisons toward a target comparison population. To scale computation, we propose a stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm based on inverse-probability resampling, which draws comparisons in proportion to their IPW weights. In an application to transaction data from an online wine retailer, the method improves out-of-sample recommendation performance relative to a popularity-based benchmark, with particularly strong gains in predicting purchases of previously unconsumed products.
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