arXiv:2602.16821cs.LG2026-02中稿 · npj Climate and At…被引 3

融合地形与风向信息,提升高分辨率空气质量预测精度

TopoFlow: Topography-aware Pollutant Flow Learning for High-Resolution Air Quality Prediction

  • 引入地形感知注意力和风向引导的局部重排机制
  • PM2.5预测均方根误差达9.71微克/立方米,优于现有系统71%-80%
  • 适用于长期、多污染物、多时序的空气质量预报场景

我们提出TopoFlow(地形感知污染流学习),一种物理引导的神经网络,用于高效高分辨率空气质量预测。为将物理过程显式融入学习框架,我们识别出影响污染物动态的两个关键因素:地形与风向。复杂地形可引导、阻挡并滞留污染物,而风是其传输与扩散的主要驱动力。基于此,TopoFlow采用视觉变换器架构,引入两项新机制:地形感知注意力,显式建模地形引起的流动模式;风向引导的块重排,使空间表示与主导风向对齐。模型基于中国超过1400个地表监测站六年的高分辨率再分析数据训练,实现PM2.5 RMSE为9.71 μg/m³,比业务预报系统提升71%-80%,比最先进的AI基线提升13%。预测误差始终低于中国24小时空气质量标准(75 μg/m³,GB 3095-2012),可可靠区分清洁与污染状态。该性能提升在四种主要污染物及12至96小时预报时长上均保持一致,表明将物理知识系统性融入神经网络能根本性推进空气质量预测。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose TopoFlow (Topography-aware pollutant Flow learning), a physics-guided neural network for efficient, high-resolution air quality prediction. To explicitly embed physical processes into the learning framework, we identify two critical factors governing pollutant dynamics: topography and wind direction. Complex terrain can channel, block, and trap pollutants, while wind acts as a primary driver of their transport and dispersion. Building on these insights, TopoFlow leverages a vision transformer architecture with two novel mechanisms: topography-aware attention, which explicitly models terrain-induced flow patterns, and wind-guided patch reordering, which aligns spatial representations with prevailing wind directions. Trained on six years of high-resolution reanalysis data assimilating observations from over 1,400 surface monitoring stations across China, TopoFlow achieves a PM2.5 RMSE of 9.71 ug/m3, representing a 71-80% improvement over operational forecasting systems and a 13% improvement over state-of-the-art AI baselines. Forecast errors remain well below China's 24-hour air quality threshold of 75 ug/m3 (GB 3095-2012), enabling reliable discrimination between clean and polluted conditions. These performance gains are consistent across all four major pollutants and forecast lead times from 12 to 96 hours, demonstrating that principled integration of physical knowledge into neural networks can fundamentally advance air quality prediction.

空气质量预测物理引导模型视觉变换器污染流模拟

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