用动力系统视角提升时间序列建模,实现更准、更省的预测。
Position: A Dynamical Systems Perspective is Needed to Advance Time Series Modeling
- 从数据中重构动力系统模型,捕捉复杂时序背后的内在机制。
- 不仅能短期预测,还能准确估计长期统计特性,如稳定状态分布。
- 适合追求高效、可解释、泛化能力强的时序建模研究者。
时间序列建模已从早期线性统计方法发展到当前的基础模型趋势。尽管领域充满热度与工业需求,进展的真实程度却常不清晰。为推动时序预测与分析进入新阶段,本文主张引入动力系统(DS)视角。自然或工程系统观测的时间序列几乎均源自潜在的动力系统,若能获取其控制方程,则理论上可实现最优预测。这正是动力系统重构(DSR)的目标——通过机器学习/人工智能方法,从数据中推断出潜在系统的代理模型。基于DS原则的模型具有深远优势:除短期预测外,还能预测系统的长期统计特性,这对许多实际场景更为重要。此外,DS理论提供跨领域的理论洞见,可揭示时序生成机制,指导性能上限评估、未知区域泛化(如临界点)及控制策略设计。本文综述了DS理论与DSR中的核心概念、方法、度量与模型,并探讨如何将这些洞见转化为时序建模的关键突破,实现更高精度且计算与内存开销更低的预测。最后提出若干具体建议,推动DSR成果在时序建模中的落地。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series (TS) modeling has come a long way from early statistical, mainly linear, approaches to the current trend in TS foundation models. With a lot of hype and industrial demand in this field, it is not always clear how much progress there really is. To advance TS forecasting and analysis to the next level, here we argue that the field needs a dynamical systems (DS) perspective. TS of observations from natural or engineered systems almost always originate from some underlying DS, and arguably access to its governing equations would yield theoretically optimal forecasts. This is the promise of DS reconstruction (DSR), a class of ML/AI approaches that aim to infer surrogate models of the underlying DS from data. But models based on DS principles offer other profound advantages: Beyond short-term forecasts, they enable to predict the long-term statistics of an observed system, which in many practical scenarios may be the more relevant quantities. DS theory furthermore provides domain-independent theoretical insight into mechanisms underlying TS generation, and thereby will inform us, e.g., about upper bounds on performance of any TS model, generalization into unseen regimes as in tipping points, or potential control strategies. After reviewing some of the central concepts, methods, measures, and models in DS theory and DSR, we will discuss how insights from this field can advance TS modeling in crucial ways, enabling better forecasting with much lower computational and memory footprints. We conclude with a number of specific suggestions for translating insights from DSR into TS modeling.
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