量子混合模型提升金融风控预测与决策稳定性,支持审计追溯。
HQFS: Hybrid Quantum Classical Financial Security with VQC Forecasting, QUBO Annealing, and Audit-Ready Post-Quantum Signing
- 用变分量子电路+经典头预测收益与波动率
- 量子退火求解带约束的组合优化,提速28%且降低最大回撤11.7%
- 采用后量子签名实现可审计的交易记录,适合监管合规场景
传统金融风险系统通常分为预测与优化两步:先建模预测收益或风险,再通过优化器做投资组合调整。但在实际中,这一流程在市场波动、离散约束(如最小交易单位、限额)或资产规模扩大时容易失效。此外,受监管环境要求,需提供可审计的决策溯源记录。本文提出HQFS,一个融合预测、离散优化与可审计性的混合流水线。首先,使用小规模变分量子电路(VQC)结合经典头部学习下一周期收益与波动率代理;其次,将风险-收益目标与约束转化为QUBO问题,优先用量子退火求解,无量子资源时降级为兼容的古典QUBO求解器;第三,对每次调仓输出使用后量子签名,确保后续可验证且不依赖运行环境信任。在真实市场数据集上,相比调优后的经典基线,HQFS将收益预测误差降低7.8%,波动率预测误差降低6.1%;在决策层,出样本夏普比率提升9.4%,最大回撤降低11.7%;在相同约束下,相比混合整数规划基线,平均求解时间减少28%,同时生成完整可追溯的签名化分配记录。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Here's the corrected paragraph with all punctuation and formatting issues fixed: Financial risk systems usually follow a two-step routine: a model predicts return or risk, and then an optimizer makes a decision such as a portfolio rebalance. In practice, this split can break under real constraints. The prediction model may look good, but the final decision can be unstable when the market shifts, when discrete constraints are added (lot sizes, caps), or when the optimization becomes slow for larger asset sets. Also, regulated settings need a clear audit trail that links each decision to the exact model state and inputs. We present HQFS, a practical hybrid pipeline that connects forecasting, discrete risk optimization, and auditability in one flow. First, HQFS learns next-step return and a volatility proxy using a variational quantum circuit (VQC) with a small classical head. Second, HQFS converts the risk-return objective and constraints into a QUBO and solves it with quantum annealing when available, while keeping a compatible classical QUBO solver as a fallback for deployment. Third, HQFS signs each rebalance output using a post-quantum signature so the allocation can be verified later without trusting the runtime environment. On our market dataset study, HQFS reduces return prediction error by 7.8% and volatility prediction error by 6.1% versus a tuned classical baseline. For the decision layer, HQFS improves out-of-sample Sharpe by 9.4% and lowers maximum drawdown by 11.7%. The QUBO solve stage also cuts average solve time by 28% compared to a mixed-integer baseline under the same constraints, while producing fully traceable, signed allocation records.
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