arXiv:2602.17122cs.LGcs.AI2026-02被引 1

提出TIFO方法,让模型自动识别时间序列中的平稳频率成分。

TIFO: Time-Invariant Frequency Operator for Stationarity-Aware Representation Learning in Time Series

  • 设计时不变频域算子,从全数据集学习平稳性感知的频率权重
  • 在28个场景中取得18个第一、6个第二,ETTm2上均方误差降低33.3%~55.3%
  • 可即插即用,计算成本减少60%-70%,适合各类时间序列预测模型

非平稳时间序列预测受训练与测试数据分布差异的影响。现有方法通过移除单个样本的低阶矩来缓解依赖,但无法捕捉跨样本的时间演化结构,也难以建模复杂时间模式。本文提出时间不变频域算子(TIFO),在频域空间中考虑所有可能的时间结构,学习全数据集的平稳性感知权重。该权重突出平稳频率分量,抑制非平稳部分,从而缓解分布偏移问题。我们证明了时间序列的傅里叶变换在频域隐含特征分解。TIFO为即插即用模块,可无缝集成于多种预测模型。实验显示其在28个预测设置中取得18个第一、6个第二;在ETTm2数据集上平均均方误差分别提升33.3%和55.3%。此外,相比基线方法,计算成本降低60%-70%,展现出良好可扩展性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Nonstationary time series forecasting suffers from the distribution shift issue due to the different distributions that produce the training and test data. Existing methods attempt to alleviate the dependence by, e.g., removing low-order moments from each individual sample. These solutions fail to capture the underlying time-evolving structure across samples and do not model the complex time structure. In this paper, we aim to address the distribution shift in the frequency space by considering all possible time structures. To this end, we propose a Time-Invariant Frequency Operator (TIFO), which learns stationarity-aware weights over the frequency spectrum across the entire dataset. The weight representation highlights stationary frequency components while suppressing non-stationary ones, thereby mitigating the distribution shift issue in time series. To justify our method, we show that the Fourier transform of time series data implicitly induces eigen-decomposition in the frequency space. TIFO is a plug-and-play approach that can be seamlessly integrated into various forecasting models. Experiments demonstrate our method achieves 18 top-1 and 6 top-2 results out of 28 forecasting settings. Notably, it yields 33.3% and 55.3% improvements in average MSE on the ETTm2 dataset. In addition, TIFO reduces computational costs by 60% -70% compared to baseline methods, demonstrating strong scalability across diverse forecasting models.

时间序列频域分析平稳性建模预测优化

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