提出可解释的稳定特征学习框架,解决临床数据缺失下的模型可信度问题。
A feature-stable and explainable machine learning framework for trustworthy decision-making under incomplete clinical data
- 融合特征抽象与稳定性分析,量化特征在数据缺失下的变化
- 在568例血尿患者数据中,性能优于或媲美主流模型
- 适合需高可信度决策的医疗场景,尤其数据不完整时
机器学习在生物医学领域应用日益广泛,但在高风险场景中仍受限于鲁棒性差、可解释性弱以及特征在真实数据扰动(如缺失)下的不稳定性。即使预测性能高,若关键特征随数据完整性变化而波动,也会削弱可复现性和决策可靠性。本文提出CACTUS(Comprehensive Abstraction and Classification Tool for Uncovering Structures),一个专为小规模、异质性高且不完整的临床数据设计的可解释机器学习框架。该框架整合特征抽象、可解释分类与系统性特征稳定性分析,量化关键特征在数据质量下降时的保持程度。基于包含568名膀胱癌评估患者的血尿真实队列,在控制缺失率条件下对比随机森林与梯度提升等方法,结果表明CACTUS在预测性能上达到或超越现有模型,同时显著提升核心特征的稳定性,包括按性别分层分析中。研究显示,特征稳定性提供独立于传统指标的补充信息,对评估模型在生物医学中的可信度至关重要。通过显式量化对缺失数据的鲁棒性并优先选择可解释、稳定的特征,CACTUS为可信的数据驱动决策支持提供了通用范式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning models are increasingly applied to biomedical data, yet their adoption in high stakes domains remains limited by poor robustness, limited interpretability, and instability of learned features under realistic data perturbations, such as missingness. In particular, models that achieve high predictive performance may still fail to inspire trust if their key features fluctuate when data completeness changes, undermining reproducibility and downstream decision-making. Here, we present CACTUS (Comprehensive Abstraction and Classification Tool for Uncovering Structures), an explainable machine learning framework explicitly designed to address these challenges in small, heterogeneous, and incomplete clinical datasets. CACTUS integrates feature abstraction, interpretable classification, and systematic feature stability analysis to quantify how consistently informative features are preserved as data quality degrades. Using a real-world haematuria cohort comprising 568 patients evaluated for bladder cancer, we benchmark CACTUS against widely used machine learning approaches, including random forests and gradient boosting methods, under controlled levels of randomly introduced missing data. We demonstrate that CACTUS achieves competitive or superior predictive performance while maintaining markedly higher stability of top-ranked features as missingness increases, including in sex-stratified analyses. Our results show that feature stability provides information complementary to conventional performance metrics and is essential for assessing the trustworthiness of machine learning models applied to biomedical data. By explicitly quantifying robustness to missing data and prioritising interpretable, stable features, CACTUS offers a generalizable framework for trustworthy data-driven decision support.
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