针对马尔可夫数据,提出最优序贯检验方法,显著降低检测时间。
Asymptotically Optimal Sequential Testing with Markovian Data
- 基于马尔可夫链的平稳分布与转移结构,建立新下界。
- 所提检验在α趋近0时,停止时间逼近理论最优。
- 适用于MCMC模型误设检测与马尔可夫决策过程结构测试。
研究由遍历、有限状态马尔可夫链生成的数据的一侧和α-正确序贯假设检验。零假设为未知转移矩阵属于预设的随机矩阵集合P,备择假设对应于不相交的集合Q。我们建立了任意有效序贯检验在备择假设下期望停止时间的非渐近实例相关下界,该下界在α→0时渐近紧致。新颖分析改进了现有下界,后者或为渐近形式,或在此设定中明显次优。该下界同时融合了马尔可夫链的平稳分布与转移结构。我们进一步提出一种期望停止时间渐近匹配此下界的最优检验。通过应用示例展示框架实用性:包括马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛中的模型误设序贯检测,以及马尔可夫决策过程中的过渡动态线性性等结构性质检验。研究结果对马尔可夫依赖下的最优序贯检验程序提供了精确而通用的刻画。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We study one-sided and $α$-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic, finite-state Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set $P$ of stochastic matrices, and the alternative corresponds to a disjoint set $Q$. We establish a non-asymptotic instance-dependent lower bound on the expected stopping time of any valid sequential test under the alternative, which is asymptotically tight. Our novel analysis improves the existing lower bounds, which are either asymptotic or provably sub-optimal in this setting. Our lower bound incorporates both the stationary distribution and the transition structure induced by the unknown Markov chain. We further propose an optimal test whose expected stopping time matches this lower bound asymptotically as $α\to 0$. We illustrate the usefulness of our framework through applications to sequential detection of model misspecification in Markov Chain Monte Carlo and to testing structural properties, such as the linearity of transition dynamics, in Markov decision processes. Our findings yield a sharp and general characterization of optimal sequential testing procedures under Markovian dependence.
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