arXiv:2602.17829cs.LG2026-02

用大模型从时间序列中自动提炼可验证的因果规则,解释复杂系统行为。

Causality by Abstraction: Symbolic Rule Learning in Multivariate Timeseries with Large Language Models

  • 构建带时间算子的符号规则语言,约束大模型生成可验证因果规则
  • 通过模拟器生成反事实输入,提升规则对复杂动态的解释能力
  • 在疫情与建筑能耗场景中验证规则的重建性、因果性和泛化性

在存在延迟效应的时间序列数据中推断因果关系是基础性挑战,尤其当系统表现出无法由简单函数映射捕捉的复杂动态时。传统方法难以生成通用且可解释的说明,因为多个不同输入轨迹可能产生几乎无法区分的输出。本文提出 ruleXplain 框架,利用大语言模型(LLM)提取仿真驱动的动力学系统中输入-输出关系的正式解释。该方法引入具有时间算子和延迟语义的受限符号规则语言,通过结构化提示使 LLM 能生成可验证的因果规则。ruleXplain 依赖于一个原则性模型(如模拟器),将多变量输入时间序列映射为输出时间序列。在此框架中,模拟器生成多样化的反事实输入轨迹,这些轨迹产生相似的目标输出,作为候选解释。这些反事实输入被聚类并作为上下文提供给 LLM,任务是生成编码输出时间序列中可观测模式的联合时间趋势的符号规则。闭环精炼过程确保规则的一致性与语义有效性。我们在 PySIRTEM 疫情模拟器(测试率输入→日感染数)和 EnergyPlus 建筑能耗模拟器(温度与太阳辐照度输入→用电需求)上验证该框架。实验包括三类:(1)通过输入重构评估规则集效能;(2)消融实验评估规则集的因果编码能力;(3)在未见过的输出趋势及相位动态下测试规则的泛化性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Inferring causal relations in timeseries data with delayed effects is a fundamental challenge, especially when the underlying system exhibits complex dynamics that cannot be captured by simple functional mappings. Traditional approaches often fail to produce generalized and interpretable explanations, as multiple distinct input trajectories may yield nearly indistinguishable outputs. In this work, we present ruleXplain, a framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract formal explanations for input-output relations in simulation-driven dynamical systems. Our method introduces a constrained symbolic rule language with temporal operators and delay semantics, enabling LLMs to generate verifiable causal rules through structured prompting. ruleXplain relies on the availability of a principled model (e.g., a simulator) that maps multivariate input time series to output time series. Within ruleXplain, the simulator is used to generate diverse counterfactual input trajectories that yield similar target output, serving as candidate explanations. Such counterfactual inputs are clustered and provided as context to the LLM, which is tasked with the generation of symbolic rules encoding the joint temporal trends responsible for the patterns observable in the output times series. A closed-loop refinement process ensures rule consistency and semantic validity. We validate the framework using the PySIRTEM epidemic simulator, mapping testing rate inputs to daily infection counts; and the EnergyPlus building energy simulator, observing temperature and solar irradiance inputs to electricity needs. For validation, we perform three classes of experiments: (1) the efficacy of the ruleset through input reconstruction; (2) ablation studies evaluating the causal encoding of the ruleset; and (3) generalization tests of the extracted rules across unseen output trends with varying phase dynamics.

因果推断大模型时间序列符号规则

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