用基于Transformer的GAN生成金融时间序列数据,提升预测准确率。
Financial time series augmentation using transformer based GAN architecture
- 用Transformer架构的GAN生成合成金融数据,增强原始数据
- 在比特币和标普500上,合成数据训练使预测精度显著提升
- 提出新评估指标,结合DTW与改进DeD-iMs监测生成数据质量
时间序列预测在工程、经济等多个领域至关重要,精准预测支撑战略决策。然而,在金融等波动性强的领域,由于数据稀缺且动态变化,深度学习模型难以有效训练,导致泛化能力差。核心挑战是如何可靠地扩充稀缺的金融时间序列数据以提升预测性能。本文证明生成对抗网络(GAN)可有效作为数据增强工具,克服金融领域的数据短缺问题。具体而言,使用基于Transformer的GAN(TTS-GAN)生成的合成数据训练长短期记忆(LSTM)模型,相比仅使用真实数据,显著提升了预测准确率。该结论在比特币和标普500价格数据上均得到验证,适用于多种预测时长。此外,我们提出一种新的时间序列专用质量评估指标,融合动态时间规整(DTW)与改进的深度数据差异度量(DeD-iMs),可有效监控训练过程并评估生成数据质量。这些结果为基于GAN的数据增强在金融预测中的应用提供了有力支持。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time-series forecasting is a critical task across many domains, from engineering to economics, where accurate predictions drive strategic decisions. However, applying advanced deep learning models in challenging, volatile domains like finance is difficult due to the inherent limitation and dynamic nature of financial time series data. This scarcity often results in sub-optimal model training and poor generalization. The fundamental challenge lies in determining how to reliably augment scarce financial time series data to enhance the predictive accuracy of deep learning forecasting models. Our main contribution is a demonstration of how Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) can effectively serve as a data augmentation tool to overcome data scarcity in the financial domain. Specifically, we show that training a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting model on a dataset augmented with synthetic data generated by a transformer-based GAN (TTS-GAN) significantly improves the forecasting accuracy compared to using real data alone. We confirm these results across different financial time series (Bitcoin and S\&P500 price data) and various forecasting horizons. Furthermore, we propose a novel, time series specific quality metric that combines Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and a modified Deep Dataset Dissimilarity Measure (DeD-iMs) to reliably monitor the training progress and evaluate the quality of the generated data. These findings provide compelling evidence for the benefits of GAN-based data augmentation in enhancing financial predictive capabilities.
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