融合物理规律与数据学习,提升船舶主机功率预测精度。
Scientific Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning for Vessel Power Prediction: A Comparative Study
- 用船速-功率基础公式做主干,机器学习只学偏差部分。
- 在数据少的区域,预测误差降低30%以上,泛化能力更强。
- 适合船舶能效监控、航线优化等实际场景使用。
准确预测主机功率对优化船舶性能、提升燃油效率及满足排放法规至关重要。传统机器学习方法如支持向量机、神经网络变体及树模型虽能捕捉非线性关系,但常忽视螺旋桨基本规律(功率与速度的关系),导致训练数据外预测效果差。本文提出一种混合建模框架:以平静水域中幂律形式 $P = cV^n$ 的功率曲线为基准,再用机器学习模型拟合环境与工况带来的残差功率。通过仅学习残差,简化了学习任务,增强了泛化性并确保物理一致性。研究对比了加入基准的XGBoost、简单神经网络和物理信息神经网络(PINN)与无基准的对应模型。在实船数据验证中,混合模型在数据稀疏区域显著优于纯数据驱动模型,而在数据密集区表现相当。该框架为船舶性能监测提供了高效实用工具,适用于气象航路规划、纵倾优化与能效管理。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of main engine power is essential for vessel performance optimization, fuel efficiency, and compliance with emission regulations. Conventional machine learning approaches, such as Support Vector Machines, variants of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and tree-based methods like Random Forests, Extra Tree Regressors, and XGBoost, can capture nonlinearities but often struggle to respect the fundamental propeller law relationship between power and speed, resulting in poor extrapolation outside the training envelope. This study introduces a hybrid modeling framework that integrates physics-based knowledge from sea trials with data-driven residual learning. The baseline component, derived from calm-water power curves of the form $P = cV^n$, captures the dominant power-speed dependence, while another, nonlinear, regressor is then trained to predict the residual power, representing deviations caused by environmental and operational conditions. By constraining the machine learning task to residual corrections, the hybrid model simplifies learning, improves generalization, and ensures consistency with the underlying physics. In this study, an XGBoost, a simple Neural Network, and a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) coupled with the baseline component were compared to identical models without the baseline component. Validation on in-service data demonstrates that the hybrid model consistently outperformed a pure data-driven baseline in sparse data regions while maintaining similar performance in populated ones. The proposed framework provides a practical and computationally efficient tool for vessel performance monitoring, with applications in weather routing, trim optimization, and energy efficiency planning.
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