arXiv:2602.18645cs.LG2026-02被引 2

模型通过动态选段实现更精准的时间序列推理。

Adaptive Time Series Reasoning via Segment Selection

  • 采用控制器-推理器架构,用强化学习动态选择关键时间片段
  • 在6个基准上平均准确率提升6.46个百分点,罕见事件定位效果最佳
  • 适合需要精确定位异常或跨段推理的场景,如金融、医疗分析

时间序列推理任务通常从自然语言问题出发,需针对时间序列进行针对性分析。证据可能分布在全序列中,也可能仅出现在少数短区间内,因此模型必须决定哪些部分值得关注。现有方法在推理前将整个序列编码为固定表示,无论其是否相关。本文提出ARTIST,将时间序列推理建模为序列决策问题,通过控制器-推理器架构,结合强化学习训练控制器自适应选择信息量大的时间段,推理器生成条件化推理轨迹并输出答案。推理时,模型主动获取任务相关数据,而非依赖全序列静态摘要。我们引入一种新型分层策略优化方法,用于后训练阶段,使模型在片段选择与问答行为上均表现优异。在六个时间序列推理基准上评估,相较于大语言模型、视觉语言模型及先前系统,ARTIST平均准确率提升6.46个百分点,尤其在稀有事件定位和多片段推理任务中增益显著。监督微调进一步提升性能,强化学习则通过优化问题自适应片段选择带来额外增益。结果表明,选择性地使用数据能有效驱动时间序列推理。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series reasoning tasks often start with a natural language question and require targeted analysis of a time series. Evidence may span the full series or appear in a few short intervals, so the model must decide what to inspect. Most existing approaches encode the entire time series into a fixed representation before inference, regardless of whether or not the entire sequence is relevant. We introduce ARTIST, which formulates time-series reasoning as a sequential decision problem. ARTIST interleaves reasoning with adaptive temporal segment selection. It adopts a controller-reasoner architecture and uses reinforcement learning to train the controller role to select informative segments and the reasoner role to generate segment-conditioned reasoning traces and final answers. During inference, the model actively acquires task-relevant information instead of relying on a static summary of the full sequence. We use a novel hierarchical policy optimization approach for post-training that allows the model to excel in both segment selection and question-answering behavior. We evaluate ARTIST on six time-series reasoning benchmarks and compare it with large language models, vision-language models, and prior time-series reasoning systems. ARTIST improves average accuracy by 6.46 absolute percentage points over the strongest baseline. The largest gains appear on rare event localization and multi-segment reasoning tasks. Supervised fine-tuning improves performance, and reinforcement learning provides additional gains by optimizing question-adaptive segment selection. These results show that selective data use drives effective time-series reasoning.

时间序列强化学习推理

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