提出可扩展的时序因果发现大模型,支持跨数据集预训练
Large Causal Models for Temporal Causal Discovery
- 构建基于合成与真实时间序列数据融合的预训练框架
- 在高变量数和深层结构下仍保持优异性能,优于传统方法
- 适合需要快速推理和跨域泛化的因果建模研究者
时序因果发现传统依赖数据集特异性模型,限制了多数据集预训练潜力。本文提出大型因果模型(LCMs),一种专为时序因果发现设计的预训练神经架构。通过结合多种合成生成器与真实时间序列数据,实现大规模学习。在合成、半合成及真实基准上的实验表明,LCMs能有效扩展至更高变量数量和更深网络结构,性能优于经典与神经基线方法,尤其在分布外场景表现突出,支持快速单次推理。结果验证了其作为时序因果发现基础模型的可行性。代码与权重见https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM/
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM/.
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