arXiv:2602.19414cs.LGcs.SY2026-02

在不共享数据的前提下,实现工业系统间因果推理与反事实预测。

Federated Causal Representation Learning in State-Space Systems for Decentralized Counterfactual Reasoning

  • 通过联邦学习将高维观测映射为解耦的低维潜在状态。
  • 仅交换压缩后的潜在状态即可实现跨客户端反事实推断。
  • 适用于隐私敏感的工业控制系统,支持去中心化决策。

工业资产网络通过物理过程和控制输入紧密耦合,核心问题是:若某客户端操作方式改变,其输出将如何变化?由于各客户端数据高维且私密,原始数据集中不可行;同时各客户端维护专有本地模型,无法修改。本文提出一种在状态空间系统中的联邦因果表征学习框架,在此约束下捕捉客户端间的相互依赖关系。每个客户端将高维观测映射为解耦内在动态与控制驱动影响的低维潜在状态;中央服务器估计全局状态转移与控制结构。该框架支持去中心化反事实推理,客户端仅需交换紧凑的潜在状态,即可预测在其他客户端不同控制输入下的输出变化。我们证明了该方法收敛至集中式基准,并提供隐私保障。实验表明,该方法在合成及真实工业控制系统数据集上具备可扩展性与高精度的跨客户端反事实推断能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Networks of interdependent industrial assets (clients) are tightly coupled through physical processes and control inputs, raising a key question: how would the output of one client change if another client were operated differently? This is difficult to answer because client-specific data are high-dimensional and private, making centralization of raw data infeasible. Each client also maintains proprietary local models that cannot be modified. We propose a federated framework for causal representation learning in state-space systems that captures interdependencies among clients under these constraints. Each client maps high-dimensional observations into low-dimensional latent states that disentangle intrinsic dynamics from control-driven influences. A central server estimates the global state-transition and control structure. This enables decentralized counterfactual reasoning where clients predict how outputs would change under alternative control inputs at others while only exchanging compact latent states. We prove convergence to a centralized oracle and provide privacy guarantees. Our experiments demonstrate scalability, and accurate cross-client counterfactual inference on synthetic and real-world industrial control system datasets.

联邦学习因果推理工业控制状态空间

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