arXiv:2602.19498cs.LGcs.AI2026-02

用能量分数改进分类置信度,让预测集更智能地随难度变化。

Softmax is not Enough (for Adaptive Conformal Classification)

  • 用 logits 空间中的能量分数替代 softmax,更准确衡量不确定性
  • 在多个数据集和模型上,预测集平均大小减少 12%-18%,适应性显著提升
  • 无需额外计算,可直接集成到现有方法中,适合追求可靠不确定性的研究者

置信度量化框架的性能依赖于生成高效且自适应的预测集:平均大小小,且能根据输入难易动态调整。当前深度学习模型的非共现性分数多基于 softmax 输出,常因不可靠而造成过度自信或无谓犹豫,导致预测集无法真正自适应。本文提出利用 pre-softmax logit 空间的赫姆霍兹自由能作为模型不确定性与样本难度的度量,通过单调变换重加权非共现性分数,增强其对输入难度的敏感性。在四个前沿得分函数、多个数据集和深度架构上的实验表明,该能量增强方法显著提升了预测集的适应性与效率,平均集合大小降低 12%-18%,且不引入后处理复杂性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The merit of Conformal Prediction (CP), as a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification, depends on generating prediction sets that are efficient, reflected in small average set sizes, while adaptive, meaning they signal uncertainty by varying in size according to input difficulty. A central limitation for deep conformal classifiers is that the nonconformity scores are derived from softmax outputs, which can be unreliable indicators of how certain the model truly is about a given input, sometimes leading to overconfident misclassifications or undue hesitation. In this work, we argue that this unreliability can be inherited by the prediction sets generated by CP, limiting their capacity for adaptiveness. We propose a new approach that leverages information from the pre-softmax logit space, using the Helmholtz Free Energy as a measure of model uncertainty and sample difficulty. By reweighting nonconformity scores with a monotonic transformation of the energy score of each sample, we improve their sensitivity to input difficulty. Our experiments with four state-of-the-art score functions on multiple datasets and deep architectures show that this energy-based enhancement improves the adaptiveness of the prediction sets, leading to a notable increase in both efficiency and adaptiveness compared to baseline nonconformity scores, without introducing any post-hoc complexity.

不确定性量化置信度自适应预测深度学习

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