提出高效变分推断算法,加速贝叶斯MIDAS回归计算并保持精度。
Variational Inference for Bayesian MIDAS Regression
- 设计坐标上升变分推断算法,利用模型结构实现闭式更新。
- 在21种模拟场景下速度提升107至1772倍,后验均值与吉布斯采样接近。
- 适合需要快速高维时间序列建模的金融实证研究者。
我们为具有线性权重参数化的贝叶斯混合数据采样(MIDAS)回归开发了坐标上升变分推断(CAVI)算法。该模型通过归一化约束将影响系数与权重函数参数分离,形成双线性结构,使通用哈密顿蒙特卡洛采样失效,但保留了可被CAVI利用的条件共轭性。每个变分更新均有闭式解:回归系数和权重参数服从高斯分布,误差方差服从逆伽马分布。算法通过二阶矩传播块间不确定性,区别于简单代入近似。在涵盖21种数据生成配置、最多50个预测变量的蒙特卡洛研究中,CAVI的后验均值与块吉布斯采样基准几乎一致,速度提升107倍至1772倍(表9)。而通用自动微分变分推断(ADVI)的偏差大714倍,且慢数个数量级,验证了模型定制推导的价值。权重函数参数在所有配置下校准良好(覆盖率高于92%)。影响系数的可信区间呈现均值场近似的低估特征,覆盖率随预测变量数增加从89%降至55%,这是速度与区间校准间的已知权衡,结构化变分方法可缓解此问题。对标普500日收益率的真实波动率预测的实证应用显示,CAVI与吉布斯采样点预测几乎完全一致,每次月度估计耗时不足10毫秒。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We develop a Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) algorithm for Bayesian Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression with linear weight parameterizations. The model separates impact coeffcients from weighting function parameters through a normalization constraint, creating a bilinear structure that renders generic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers unreliable while preserving conditional conjugacy exploitable by CAVI. Each variational update admits a closed-form solution: Gaussian for regression coefficients and weight parameters, Inverse-Gamma for the error variance. The algorithm propagates uncertainty across blocks through second moments, distinguishing it from naive plug-in approximations. In a Monte Carlo study spanning 21 data-generating configurations with up to 50 predictors, CAVI produces posterior means nearly identical to a block Gibbs sampler benchmark while achieving speedups of 107x to 1,772x (Table 9). Generic automatic differentiation VI (ADVI), by contrast, produces bias 714 times larger while being orders of magnitude slower, confirming the value of model-specific derivations. Weight function parameters maintain excellent calibration (coverage above 92%) across all configurations. Impact coefficient credible intervals exhibit the underdispersion characteristic of mean-field approximations, with coverage declining from 89% to 55% as the number of predictors grows a documented trade-off between speed and interval calibration that structured variational methods can address. An empirical application to realized volatility forecasting on S&P 500 daily returns cofirms that CAVI and Gibbs sampling yield virtually identical point forecasts, with CAVI completing each monthly estimation in under 10 milliseconds.
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