arXiv:2602.19654cs.LGcs.AI2026-02

NEXUS用极简参数实现高分辨率空气质量预测,适合实时监控。

NEXUS: A compact neural architecture for high-resolution spatiotemporal air quality forecasting in Delhi National Capital Region

  • 采用分块嵌入与自适应融合,压缩模型参数至1.8万
  • 对三种污染物预测准确率超0.91,远低于同类模型
  • 揭示冬季污染成因,适合城市环境治理决策参考

大都市空气污染对公共健康构成严峻挑战,尤其在德里国家首都区(NCR),严重污染影响数百万人口。我们提出NEXUS(神经提取与统一时空)架构,用于预测一氧化碳、氮氧化物和二氧化硫。基于2018至2021年共四年、十六个空间网格的气象数据,NEXUS仅使用18,748个参数,即实现二氧化碳预测决定系数(R²)超过0.94,氮氧化物达0.91,二氧化硫达0.95,显著低于SCINet(35,552)、Autoformer(68,704)和FEDformer(298,080)。该架构融合分块嵌入、低秩投影与自适应融合机制,解析复杂大气化学模式。研究发现明显的昼夜节律和显著季节变化,冬季严重污染事件主要由逆温层与农田生物质焚烧驱动。分析识别关键气象阈值,量化风场对污染物扩散的影响,并绘制区域空间异质性图谱。大量消融实验验证各组件作用。NEXUS在保持卓越预测性能的同时具备惊人计算效率,支持空气质量监测系统的实时部署。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Urban air pollution in megacities poses critical public health challenges, particularly in Delhi National Capital Region (NCR) where severe degradation affects millions. We present NEXUS (Neural Extraction and Unified Spatiotemporal) architecture for forecasting carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, and sulfur dioxide. Working with four years (2018--2021) of atmospheric data across sixteen spatial grids, NEXUS achieves R$^2$ exceeding 0.94 for CO, 0.91 for NO, and 0.95 for SO$_2$ using merely 18,748 parameters -- substantially fewer than SCINet (35,552), Autoformer (68,704), and FEDformer (298,080). The architecture integrates patch embedding, low-rank projections, and adaptive fusion mechanisms to decode complex atmospheric chemistry patterns. Our investigation uncovers distinct diurnal rhythms and pronounced seasonal variations, with winter months experiencing severe pollution episodes driven by temperature inversions and agricultural biomass burning. Analysis identifies critical meteorological thresholds, quantifies wind field impacts on pollutant dispersion, and maps spatial heterogeneity across the region. Extensive ablation experiments demonstrate each architectural component's role. NEXUS delivers superior predictive performance with remarkable computational efficiency, enabling real-time deployment for air quality monitoring systems.

空气质量时空预测轻量模型

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