arXiv:2602.19832cs.CV2026-02

用多尺度融合提升光伏超短期预测精度,尤其擅长捕捉薄云边界和气象数据周期性。

M3S-Net: Multimodal Feature Fusion Network Based on Multi-scale Data for Ultra-short-term PV Power Forecasting

  • 分层选择云边界特征,精准分离薄云边缘。
  • 通过傅里叶变换解析不同时间尺度的气象周期性,提升时序建模能力。
  • 跨模态动态状态交互,线性复杂度实现视觉与气象深度耦合。

太阳能辐照的固有间歇性和高频波动,特别是在快速云移动期间,给高渗透率光伏电网带来显著稳定性挑战。尽管多模态预测已成为可行缓解策略,但现有架构主要依赖浅层特征拼接和二值云分割,难以捕捉云的细粒度光学特征以及视觉与气象模态间的复杂时空耦合关系。为此,本文提出M3S-Net,一种基于多尺度数据的新型多模态特征融合网络,用于超短期光伏功率预测。首先,多尺度部分通道选择网络利用部分卷积显式分离光学薄云的边界特征,有效突破粗粒度二值掩码的精度瓶颈。其次,多尺度序列到图像分析网络采用基于快速傅里叶变换(FFT)的时间频域表示,解耦不同时间尺度下气象数据的复杂周期性。关键的是,模型引入一种跨模态Mamba交互模块,包含新颖的动态C矩阵交换机制。通过在视觉与时间流之间交换状态空间参数,该设计使一模态的状态演化受另一模态上下文条件影响,实现深度结构耦合且计算复杂度为线性,克服了浅层拼接的局限。在新构建的细粒度光伏功率数据集上的实验验证表明,相较于最先进基线,M3S-Net在10分钟预测中实现了6.2%的平均绝对误差降低。数据集与源代码将公开于https://github.com/she1110/FGPD。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The inherent intermittency and high-frequency variability of solar irradiance, particularly during rapid cloud advection, present significant stability challenges to high-penetration photovoltaic grids. Although multimodal forecasting has emerged as a viable mitigation strategy, existing architectures predominantly rely on shallow feature concatenation and binary cloud segmentation, thereby failing to capture the fine-grained optical features of clouds and the complex spatiotemporal coupling between visual and meteorological modalities. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes M3S-Net, a novel multimodal feature fusion network based on multi-scale data for ultra-short-term PV power forecasting. First, a multi-scale partial channel selection network leverages partial convolutions to explicitly isolate the boundary features of optically thin clouds, effectively transcending the precision limitations of coarse-grained binary masking. Second, a multi-scale sequence to image analysis network employs Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)-based time-frequency representation to disentangle the complex periodicity of meteorological data across varying time horizons. Crucially, the model incorporates a cross-modal Mamba interaction module featuring a novel dynamic C-matrix swapping mechanism. By exchanging state-space parameters between visual and temporal streams, this design conditions the state evolution of one modality on the context of the other, enabling deep structural coupling with linear computational complexity, thus overcoming the limitations of shallow concatenation. Experimental validation on the newly constructed fine-grained PV power dataset demonstrates that M3S-Net achieves a mean absolute error reduction of 6.2% in 10-minute forecasts compared to state-of-the-art baselines. The dataset and source code will be available at https://github.com/she1110/FGPD.

光伏预测多模态融合Mamba时序建模

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