arXiv:2602.20134cs.GTcs.AI2026-02被引 1

用博弈论建模人们谎报防疫行为,让公共卫生模型更抗欺骗。

Adversarial Data Modeling in Epidemiology

  • 将民众报告行为视为信号博弈,建模其策略性造假机制。
  • 即使普遍说谎,合理设计策略仍可维持有效疫情控制。
  • 适用于关注防疫数据真实性与公众行为建模的研究者。

流行病学模型越来越多依赖众包的自我报告行为数据,如疫苗接种、戴口罩和社交距离遵守情况。然而,这些数据并非被动采集,而是经过策略性报告,属于数据挖掘流程中的典型对抗性输入。个人出于规避处罚、获取福利或表达对公共卫生机构不信任等原因而谎报。本文提出一种数据建模框架,将人群与公共卫生机构之间的互动建模为信号博弈。该框架既生成策略性污染行为数据的生成模型,又提供接收方从中恢复可靠信号的机制。个体(发送方)选择如何报告自身行为,公共卫生机构(接收方)根据可能扭曲的信号更新流行病模型,并相应调整对报告的信任度。聚焦于口罩和疫苗接种的欺骗行为,我们分析了博弈均衡下的数据污染不同阶段,并评估在政策干预下欺骗容忍度对疫情控制的影响。大规模模拟表明,即便在普遍说谎的合并均衡中,精心设计的发送方与接收方策略仍能维持有效的疫情控制。真实世界验证显示,行为扭曲常呈现结构性模式而非随机噪声。本研究深化了对流行病学中对抗性数据的理解,并为应对战略性用户行为提供了更鲁棒的公共卫生模型设计工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Epidemiological models increasingly rely on crowdsourced, self-reported behavioral data such as vaccination status, mask usage, and social distancing adherence. This data, however, is not passively sampled but instead strategically reported, making it a canonical case of adversarial input to a data mining pipeline. Individuals misreport for various reasons, e.g., to avoid penalties, to access benefits, or to express distrust in public health authorities. We introduce a data-modeling framework that casts the interaction between the population and a public health authority as a signaling game. This approach provides both a generative model of strategically-corrupted behavioral data and a mechanism for the receiver to recover reliable signal from it. Individuals (senders) choose how to report their behaviors, while the public health authority (receiver) updates their epidemiological model(s) based on potentially distorted signals, and modifies its trust in incoming reports accordingly. Focusing on deception around masking and vaccination, we characterize analytically game equilibrium outcomes as distinct regimes of data corruption, and evaluate the degree to which deception can be tolerated while maintaining epidemic control through policy interventions. In large scale simulations, our results show that even under pervasive dishonesty in pooling equilibria, well-designed sender and receiver strategies can still maintain effective epidemic control. Real-world validation further shows that behavioral distortions often exhibit structured patterns rather than arbitrary noise. This work advances the understanding of adversarial data in epidemiology and offers tools for designing more robust public health models in the presence of strategic user behavior.

流行病建模博弈论数据欺骗公共卫生

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