用联邦学习建模桥梁老化,不传数据也能联合训练。
FedAvg-Based CTMC Hazard Model for Federated Bridge Deterioration Assessment
- 联邦框架下分步训练桥梁老化概率模型,仅上传12维梯度向量。
- 多源异构数据下模型收敛稳定,全局梯度范数随用户增加而减小。
- 适合关注基础设施寿命评估但受限于数据隐私的市政机构使用。
桥梁定期检测记录包含公共基础设施的敏感信息,在现有数据治理约束下跨组织共享数据不现实。本文提出一种基于联邦学习的连续时间马尔可夫链(CTMC)老化风险模型,使各城市可在不传输原始检测记录的前提下协作训练共享基准模型。每位用户持有本地检测数据,对三种老化路径——良→轻度、良→重度、轻度→重度——训练带协变量(桥龄、距海岸线距离、桥面面积)的对数线性风险模型。本地优化采用小批量随机梯度下降,每轮仅上传12维伪梯度向量至中心服务器。服务器使用加权联邦平均(FedAvg)结合动量与梯度裁剪聚合更新。所有实验基于已知真实参数集生成的区域异构合成数据,实现对联邦收敛行为的可控评估。仿真结果显示,异构用户下平均负对数似然持续收敛,聚合梯度范数随用户规模扩大而降低。此外,该机制提供自然参与激励:注册本地数据的用户可定期获取全局基准参数,这些信息无法从本地数据获得,从而支持基于证据的全生命周期规划,且无需放弃数据主权。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Bridge periodic inspection records contain sensitive information about public infrastructure, making cross-organizational data sharing impractical under existing data governance constraints. We propose a federated framework for estimating a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) hazard model of bridge deterioration, enabling municipalities to collaboratively train a shared benchmark model without transferring raw inspection records. Each User holds local inspection data and trains a log-linear hazard model over three deterioration-direction transitions -- Good$\to$Minor, Good$\to$Severe, and Minor$\to$Severe -- with covariates for bridge age, coastline distance, and deck area. Local optimization is performed via mini-batch stochastic gradient descent on the CTMC log-likelihood, and only a 12-dimensional pseudo-gradient vector is uploaded to a central server per communication round. The server aggregates User updates using sample-weighted Federated Averaging (FedAvg) with momentum and gradient clipping. All experiments in this paper are conducted on fully synthetic data generated from a known ground-truth parameter set with region-specific heterogeneity, enabling controlled evaluation of federated convergence behaviour. Simulation results across heterogeneous Users show consistent convergence of the average negative log-likelihood, with the aggregated gradient norm decreasing as User scale increases. Furthermore, the federated update mechanism provides a natural participation incentive: Users who register their local inspection datasets on a shared technical-standard platform receive in return the periodically updated global benchmark parameters -- information that cannot be obtained from local data alone -- thereby enabling evidence-based life-cycle planning without surrendering data sovereignty.
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