用小波分解提升太阳辐射指数预测精度,效果优于现有方法
F10.7 Index Prediction: A Multiscale Decomposition Strategy with Wavelet Transform for Performance Optimization
- 将F10.7指数及其多尺度小波分量输入iTransformer模型进行联合预测
- 组合六种分量的方案使误差比最新方法降低18.22%(RMSE)
- 首次应用小波分解于该预测任务,适合空间天气预报研究者
本研究构建了用于训练、验证和测试的Dataset A,以及用于评估泛化能力的Dataset B。提出一种基于小波分解的F10.7指数预测新方法,将原始F10.7及其近似与细节分量一同输入iTransformer模型,并引入国际太阳黑子数(ISN)及其小波分解信号以评估其影响。最优方法与S. Yan等人(2025)最新方法及三种业务模型(SWPC、BGS、CLS)对比,同时在H. Ye等人(2024)使用的PatchTST模型上迁移测试。关键发现:(1)基于小波的组合方法整体优于仅使用原始F10.7的基线,随着高阶近似与细节分量逐步加入,性能持续提升;组合六法融合一至五阶近似与细节信号,优于仅用近似或细节信号的方法。(2)引入ISN及其小波分量未提升预测表现。(3)组合六法显著优于S. Yan等(2025)方法,RMSE、MAE、MAPE分别降低18.22%、15.09%、8.57%,且在四种太阳活动条件下均表现更优。(4)在所有预测时长上,本方法对H. Ye等(2024)方法展现出更强泛化与预测能力。据我们所知,这是首次将小波分解应用于F10.7预测,显著提升预报性能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In this study, we construct Dataset A for training, validation, and testing, and Dataset B to evaluate generalization. We propose a novel F10.7 index forecasting method using wavelet decomposition, which feeds F10.7 together with its decomposed approximate and detail signals into the iTransformer model. We also incorporate the International Sunspot Number (ISN) and its wavelet-decomposed signals to assess their influence on prediction performance. Our optimal method is then compared with the latest method from S. Yan et al. (2025) and three operational models (SWPC, BGS, CLS). Additionally, we transfer our method to the PatchTST model used in H. Ye et al. (2024) and compare our method with theirs on Dataset B. Key findings include: (1) The wavelet-based combination methods overall outperform the baseline using only F10.7 index. The prediction performance improves as higher-level approximate and detail signals are incrementally added. The Combination 6 method integrating F10.7 with its first to fifth level approximate and detail signals outperforms methods using only approximate or detail signals. (2) Incorporating ISN and its wavelet-decomposed signals does not enhance prediction performance. (3) The Combination 6 method significantly surpasses S. Yan et al. (2025) and three operational models, with RMSE, MAE, and MAPE reduced by 18.22%, 15.09%, and 8.57%, respectively, against the former method. It also excels across four different conditions of solar activity. (4) Our method demonstrates superior generalization and prediction capability over the method of H. Ye et al. (2024) across all forecast horizons. To our knowledge, this is the first application of wavelet decomposition in F10.7 prediction, substantially improving forecast performance.
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