arXiv:2602.20782cs.LG2026-02被引 2

比较多种模型在电动车充电需求预测中的表现,验证联邦学习的实用性。

On Electric Vehicle Energy Demand Forecasting and the Effect of Federated Learning

  • 用四种真实数据集对比统计、机器学习与深度学习模型
  • 梯度提升树(XGBoost)在准确率和能耗上均最优
  • 联邦学习在隐私保护与性能间取得平衡,适合分布式场景

新能源、智能设备和需求侧管理策略的普及推动了各类分析应用,从电网负荷建模到用户行为分析。电动车充电桩(EVSE)的能源需求预测(EDF)是保障高效能源管理与可持续性的关键环节,有助于供电方预判用电需求、优化资源配置并提升电网可靠性。然而,由于用户习惯、天气、驾驶行为及电池状态等外部因素,准确预测极具挑战。同时,隐私与可持续性问题加剧了数据分散,导致数据孤岛或边缘设备上的分布式数据,亟需联邦学习方案。本文研究多种经典时间序列预测方法,涵盖统计模型(如ARIMA)、传统机器学习(如XGBoost)以及深度神经网络(如GRU、LSTM),在四个真实世界EVSE数据集上,分别在集中式与联邦学习框架下进行性能对比,关注预测精度、隐私保护与能源开销之间的权衡。实验表明,梯度提升树(XGBoost)在预测准确率与能效方面优于统计与神经网络模型;同时,联邦学习模型在隐私保护与性能之间实现良好平衡,为去中心化能源需求预测提供可行方向。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The wide spread of new energy resources, smart devices, and demand side management strategies has motivated several analytics operations, from infrastructure load modeling to user behavior profiling. Energy Demand Forecasting (EDF) of Electric Vehicle Supply Equipments (EVSEs) is one of the most critical operations for ensuring efficient energy management and sustainability, since it enables utility providers to anticipate energy/power demand, optimize resource allocation, and implement proactive measures to improve grid reliability. However, accurate EDF is a challenging problem due to external factors, such as the varying user routines, weather conditions, driving behaviors, unknown state of charge, etc. Furthermore, as concerns and restrictions about privacy and sustainability have grown, training data has become increasingly fragmented, resulting in distributed datasets scattered across different data silos and/or edge devices, calling for federated learning solutions. In this paper, we investigate different well-established time series forecasting methodologies to address the EDF problem, from statistical methods (the ARIMA family) to traditional machine learning models (such as XGBoost) and deep neural networks (GRU and LSTM). We provide an overview of these methods through a performance comparison over four real-world EVSE datasets, evaluated under both centralized and federated learning paradigms, focusing on the trade-offs between forecasting fidelity, privacy preservation, and energy overheads. Our experimental results demonstrate, on the one hand, the superiority of gradient boosted trees (XGBoost) over statistical and NN-based models in both prediction accuracy and energy efficiency and, on the other hand, an insight that Federated Learning-enabled models balance these factors, offering a promising direction for decentralized energy demand forecasting.

能源预测联邦学习电动车时间序列

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