AGI时代增长瓶颈从智能转向人类验证能力，需同步提升监督能力。
Some Simple Economics of AGI
- 用自动化成本与验证成本的竞速模型解释AGI转型机制。
- 验证能力成新瓶颈，未验证部署将导致系统性风险。
- 适合政策制定者、企业高管及技术投资者阅读参考。
数千年来，人类认知是地球进步的主要引擎。随着AI使认知脱离生物学，可度量执行的边际成本趋近于零，任何可被指标捕获的劳动——包括创造、分析和创新工作——都将被吸收。增长的制约因素不再是智能，而是人类验证带宽：在执行过剩时，验证、审计和承担责任的能力。我们将AGI转型建模为两条竞速成本曲线的碰撞：指数下降的自动化成本与生物瓶颈的验证成本。这种结构不对称加剧了可执行性与可验证性之间的测度差距，并推动技术变革从技能偏向转向测度偏向。租金向验证级真实数据、密码学溯源和责任保险转移——即保障结果而非仅生成结果。当前的人机协同均衡不稳定：既因学徒制崩溃（缺失初级环）而削弱，又因专家自我编码导致过时（编码者诅咒）而内生瓦解。未经验证的部署变得私有理性——一种隐匿的外部性。若不加管理，这些力量将导向空心经济。但通过与智能体能力同步扩展验证能力，原本威胁崩溃的力量反而成为无限探索与实验的催化剂——增强型经济。我们提出了个人、企业、投资者和政策制定者的实用行动指南。当今最紧迫挑战并非部署最自主系统的竞赛，而是建立其监管基础的竞赛。唯有同步提升验证带宽与执行能力，才能确保我们召唤出的智能始终守护启动它的那份人性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
For millennia, human cognition was the primary engine of progress on Earth. As AI decouples cognition from biology, the marginal cost of measurable execution falls to zero, absorbing any labor capturable by metrics--including creative, analytical, and innovative work. The binding constraint on growth is no longer intelligence but human verification bandwidth: the capacity to validate, audit, and underwrite responsibility when execution is abundant. We model the AGI transition as the collision of two racing cost curves: an exponentially decaying Cost to Automate and a biologically bottlenecked Cost to Verify. This structural asymmetry widens a Measurability Gap between what agents can execute and what humans can afford to verify. It also drives a shift from skill-biased to measurability-biased technical change. Rents migrate to verification-grade ground truth, cryptographic provenance, and liability underwriting--the ability to insure outcomes rather than merely generate them. The current human-in-the-loop equilibrium is unstable: eroded from below as apprenticeship collapses (Missing Junior Loop) and from within as experts codify their obsolescence (Codifier's Curse). Unverified deployment becomes privately rational--a Trojan Horse externality. Unmanaged, these forces pull toward a Hollow Economy. Yet by scaling verification alongside agentic capabilities, the forces that threaten collapse become the catalyst for unbounded discovery and experimentation--an Augmented Economy. We derive a practical playbook for individuals, companies, investors, and policymakers. Today's defining challenge is not the race to deploy the most autonomous systems; it is the race to secure the foundations of their oversight. Only by scaling our bandwidth for verification alongside our capacity for execution can we ensure that the intelligence we have summoned preserves the humanity that initiated it.
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