arXiv:2602.21160stat.MLcs.LG2026-02中稿 · UAI 2026被引 1

将模型不确定性分解到具体类别,更好识别高风险错误。

Not Just How Much, But Where: Decomposing Epistemic Uncertainty into Per-Class Contributions

  • 提出按类别分解不确定性的新方法,纠正罕见与常见类别的偏差。
  • 在糖尿病视网膜病变任务中,降低34.7%的选择性预测风险。
  • 适合医疗等安全敏感场景,帮助识别潜在致命误判。

在安全关键分类任务中,失败代价常呈非对称性,但传统贝叶斯深度学习仅用单一标量(互信息MI)总结认知不确定性,无法区分模型无知涉及的是无害类还是高危类。本文通过二阶泰勒展开,将MI分解为每个类别的贡献向量 $C_k(x) = σ_k^2/(2μ_k)$,其中 $μ_k = \mathbb{E}[p_k]$,$σ_k^2 = \mathrm{Var}[p_k]$,基于后验样本。$1/μ_k$ 加权有效缓解边界抑制,使 $C_k$ 在稀有与常见类别间可比。构造上满足 $\sum_k C_k \approx \mathrm{MI}$,并引入偏度诊断工具标记近似失效的输入。在三项任务中验证:(i) 糖尿病视网膜病变选择性预测中,关键类别的 $C_k$ 比MI降低34.7%的风险,比方差基线低56.2%;(ii) 临床与图像基准上的分布外检测中,$\sum_k C_k$ 达到最高AUROC,且类别视角揭示了MI无法察觉的非对称漂移;(iii) 控制标签噪声实验中,$\sum_k C_k$ 在端到端贝叶斯训练下对注入的随机噪声更鲁棒,而两者在迁移学习下均退化。所有任务表明,后验近似质量对不确定性的影响至少与度量选择同等重要。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In safety-critical classification, the cost of failure is often asymmetric, yet Bayesian deep learning summarises epistemic uncertainty with a single scalar, mutual information (MI), that cannot distinguish whether a model's ignorance involves a benign or safety-critical class. We decompose MI into a per-class vector $C_k(x)=σ_k^{2}/(2μ_k)$, with $μ_k{=}\mathbb{E}[p_k]$ and $σ_k^2{=}\mathrm{Var}[p_k]$ across posterior samples. The decomposition follows from a second-order Taylor expansion of the entropy; the $1/μ_k$ weighting corrects boundary suppression and makes $C_k$ comparable across rare and common classes. By construction $\sum_k C_k \approx \mathrm{MI}$, and a companion skewness diagnostic flags inputs where the approximation degrades. After characterising the axiomatic properties of $C_k$, we validate it on three tasks: (i) selective prediction for diabetic retinopathy, where critical-class $C_k$ reduces selective risk by 34.7\% over MI and 56.2\% over variance baselines; (ii) out-of-distribution detection on clinical and image benchmarks, where $\sum_k C_k$ achieves the highest AUROC and the per-class view exposes asymmetric shifts invisible to MI; and (iii) a controlled label-noise study in which $\sum_k C_k$ shows less sensitivity to injected aleatoric noise than MI under end-to-end Bayesian training, while both metrics degrade under transfer learning. Across all tasks, the quality of the posterior approximation shapes uncertainty at least as strongly as the choice of metric, suggesting that how uncertainty is propagated through the network matters as much as how it is measured.

不确定性医疗AI贝叶斯深度学习

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