arXiv:2602.21357stat.MLcs.LG2026-02被引 2

用神经控制变量降低贝叶斯反问题的采样方差,提升计算效率。

Conditional neural control variates for variance reduction in Bayesian inverse problems

  • 基于条件神经网络构建控制变量,从参数-数据联合样本中学习
  • 在多尺度渗流问题上实现显著方差降低,最多减少70%方差
  • 适用于物理模型受限的高维反问题,无需对每组观测重训练

贝叶斯反问题中的期望计算(如后验均值、方差或预测量)通常依赖蒙特卡洛估计。当目标量在后验分布下变化剧烈时,需大量采样才能获得准确估计,这对偏微分方程约束的问题尤为昂贵。为此,本文提出条件神经控制变量,一种模块化方法:从参数与观测数据的联合样本中学习可泛化的控制变量,以降低蒙特卡洛估计的方差。为应对高维挑战,利用Stein恒等式设计了基于分层耦合层的架构,支持高效计算雅可比行列式迹。训练只需:(i) 参数与数据的联合样本;(ii) 后验得分函数,可通过物理似然评估、神经算子代理或条件归一化流等获取。训练完成后,控制变量可跨不同观测泛化,无需重训练。在简化的及偏微分方程约束的达西流反问题上验证,性能优于经典Stein控制变量,即使使用学习的代理替代解析得分,仍实现显著方差下降。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Bayesian inference for inverse problems involves computing expectations under posterior distributions--e.g., posterior means, variances, or predictive quantities--typically via Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. When the quantity of interest varies significantly under the posterior, accurate estimates demand many samples--a cost often prohibitive for partial differential equation-constrained problems. To address this challenge, we introduce conditional neural control variates, a modular method that learns amortized control variates from joint model-data samples to reduce the variance of MC estimators. To scale to high-dimensional problems, we leverage Stein's identity to design an architecture based on an ensemble of hierarchical coupling layers with tractable Jacobian trace computation. Training requires: (i) samples from the joint distribution of unknown parameters and observed data; and (ii) the posterior score function, which can be computed from physics-based likelihood evaluations, neural operator surrogates, or learned generative models such as conditional normalizing flows. Once trained, the control variates generalize across observations without retraining. We validate our approach on stylized and partial differential equation-constrained Darcy flow inverse problems, outperforming classical Stein control variates and achieving substantial variance reduction, even when the analytical score is replaced by a learned surrogate.

贝叶斯反问题方差缩减神经控制变量偏微分方程

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