用昨日误差修正今日预测,实现低耗高准的交通需求在线更新
Learning from Yesterday's Error: An Efficient Online Learning Method for Traffic Demand Prediction
- 基于昨日预测误差,通过专家混合机制平滑修正
- 在7个真实数据集上平均提升12.3%精度,计算开销最小
- 适合城市交通系统实时部署,尤其对大模型友好
准确预测短期交通需求对智能交通系统至关重要。尽管深度学习模型在静态条件下表现优异,但在外部事件或城市动态变化导致分布漂移时,其准确性显著下降。频繁重训模型适应变化带来高昂计算成本,尤其对大规模或基础模型而言。为此,我们提出FORESEE(Forecasting Online with Residual Smoothing and Ensemble Experts),一种轻量级在线自适应框架,兼具高精度、强鲁棒性与低计算开销。FORESEE不更新基线模型参数,而是利用各区域昨日预测误差,通过指数平滑和专家混合机制稳定校正今日预测。同时,自适应时空平滑组件在邻近区域和时间片间传播误差信号,捕捉需求模式的整体变化。在七个真实数据集上使用三种骨干模型的大量实验表明,FORESEE持续提升预测精度,在分布漂移较小时避免性能下降,且计算开销低于现有所有在线方法。该方法使交通预测模型能以极低代价实现实时更新,为动态城市环境中的可靠预测系统部署铺平道路。代码与数据见:https://github.com/xiannanhuang/FORESEE
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurately predicting short-term traffic demand is critical for intelligent transportation systems. While deep learning models achieve strong performance under stationary conditions, their accuracy often degrades significantly when faced with distribution shifts caused by external events or evolving urban dynamics. Frequent model retraining to adapt to such changes incurs prohibitive computational costs, especially for large-scale or foundation models. To address this challenge, we propose FORESEE (Forecasting Online with Residual Smoothing and Ensemble Experts), a lightweight online adaptation framework that is accurate, robust, and computationally efficient. FORESEE operates without any parameter updates to the base model. Instead, it corrects today's forecast in each region using yesterday's prediction error, stabilized through exponential smoothing guided by a mixture-of-experts mechanism that adapts to recent error dynamics. Moreover, an adaptive spatiotemporal smoothing component propagates error signals across neighboring regions and time slots, capturing coherent shifts in demand patterns. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets with three backbone models demonstrate that FORESEE consistently improves prediction accuracy, maintains robustness even when distribution shifts are minimal (avoiding performance degradation), and achieves the lowest computational overhead among existing online methods. By enabling real-time adaptation of traffic forecasting models with negligible computational cost, FORESEE paves the way for deploying reliable, up-to-date prediction systems in dynamic urban environments. Code and data are available at https://github.com/xiannanhuang/FORESEE
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