融合物理规律与可解释建模,精准预测船舶功率与油耗。
Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Vessel Shaft Power and Fuel Consumption Prediction: Interpretable KAN-based Approach
- 用可解释的单变量变换+物理约束损失函数建模
- 各项误差指标最优,且保持物理合理性
- 适合需透明决策的航运运维场景
准确预测轴转速、轴功率和燃料消耗对提升海运运营效率与可持续性至关重要。传统物理模型具有可解释性但难以应对现实波动,纯数据驱动方法虽精度高却缺乏物理合理性。本文提出一种物理信息增强的科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺尔德网络(PI-KAN),结合可解释的单变量特征变换、物理信息损失函数及无泄漏链式预测流程。基于五艘货轮的运行与环境数据,PI-KAN在所有船舶上均优于传统多项式方法与神经网络基线。其在轴功率与燃料消耗预测中达到最低平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE),同时获得最高决定系数(R²),并保持物理一致性。可解释性分析揭示了符合领域规律的依赖关系,如速度-功率的立方关系、波浪与风速的余弦效应。结果表明,PI-KAN兼具预测精度与可解释性,为船舶性能监控与运营决策提供可靠工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of shaft rotational speed, shaft power, and fuel consumption is crucial for enhancing operational efficiency and sustainability in maritime transportation. Conventional physics-based models provide interpretability but struggle with real-world variability, while purely data-driven approaches achieve accuracy at the expense of physical plausibility. This paper introduces a Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (PI-KAN), a hybrid method that integrates interpretable univariate feature transformations with a physics-informed loss function and a leakage-free chained prediction pipeline. Using operational and environmental data from five cargo vessels, PI-KAN consistently outperforms the traditional polynomial method and neural network baselines. The model achieves the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), and the highest coefficient of determination (R^2) for shaft power and fuel consumption across all vessels, while maintaining physically consistent behavior. Interpretability analysis reveals rediscovery of domain-consistent dependencies, such as cubic-like speed-power relationships and cosine-like wave and wind effects. These results demonstrate that PI-KAN achieves both predictive accuracy and interpretability, offering a robust tool for vessel performance monitoring and decision support in operational settings.
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