提出衡量智能的核心指标——共享信息比例,揭示当前AI有行动力但无真智能。
A Mathematical Theory of Agency and Intelligence
- 定义新指标'双预测性'P,衡量系统观察、动作与结果间的实际信息共享度
- 证明经典系统P≤0.5,引入主动决策后P进一步下降,量子系统可达1
- 设计实时监控P的反馈架构,为构建自适应智能提供基础
为在变化环境中可靠运行,复杂系统需评估资源使用效率,而不仅是目标达成。当前AI虽能生成复杂预测,但预测看似成功时,其与环境的实际交互可能已退化。缺失的是对系统观测、行为与结果间实际共享信息量的合理度量。本文证明这一共享比例(称为双预测性,P)是交互的内在属性,可从基本原理推导,且严格受限:量子系统中P可达1,经典系统中P≤0.5,引入自主行为后进一步降低。该结论在物理系统(双摆)、强化学习代理和多轮大模型对话中得到验证。结果表明:行动力(agency)仅是按预测采取行动的能力,而智能还需从交互中学习、自我监控学习效率,并动态调整观测、行为与结果的范围以恢复有效学习。依此定义,现有AI具备行动力但缺乏智能。受生物脑-皮层调节机制启发,我们展示一种实时监测P的反馈架构,为构建自适应、抗干扰的智能系统奠定基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
To operate reliably under changing conditions, complex systems require feedback on how effectively they use resources, not just whether objectives are met. Current AI systems process vast information to produce sophisticated predictions, yet predictions can appear successful while the underlying interaction with the environment degrades. What is missing is a principled measure of how much of the total information a system deploys is actually shared between its observations, actions, and outcomes. We prove this shared fraction, which we term bipredictability, P, is intrinsic to any interaction, derivable from first principles, and strictly bounded: P can reach unity in quantum systems, P equal to, or smaller than 0.5 in classical systems, and lower once agency (action selection) is introduced. We confirm these bounds in a physical system (double pendulum), reinforcement learning agents, and multi turn LLM conversations. These results distinguish agency from intelligence: agency is the capacity to act on predictions, whereas intelligence additionally requires learning from interaction, self-monitoring of its learning effectiveness, and adapting the scope of observations, actions, and outcomes to restore effective learning. By this definition, current AI systems achieve agency but not intelligence. Inspired by thalamocortical regulation in biological systems, we demonstrate a feedback architecture that monitors P in real time, establishing a prerequisite for adaptive, resilient AI.
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