arXiv:2602.22747cs.LG2026-02中稿 · The Forty-Second C…

对比两种不确定度表示方法,发现它们可公平比较且各有优劣。

Set-based v.s. Distribution-based Representations of Epistemic Uncertainty: A Comparative Study

  • 用同一模型生成预测分布,公平对比集合与分布两种表示方式
  • 在8个基准上测试,结果表明表示方式影响实际不确定性表现
  • 适合关注模型可信度评估的研究者和工程师

神经网络中的认知不确定性通常采用两种二阶建模范式:基于后验参数分布的分布表示,以及基于可信集(凸的概率分布集合)的集合表示。由于语义、假设和评估方式不同,这两种框架常被视为根本不可比,其优劣不明确。此外,不同预测模型的差异也干扰了实证比较。为此,本文提出一项受控的对比研究,实现两种范式的严谨、同类比较。两种表示均来自同一神经网络产生的有限预测分布集合,从而隔离出表示方式的影响。研究在6种基础预测模型、10次独立运行下,通过3种不确定性度量,在8个基准(包括选择性预测和分布外检测)上进行评估。结果表明,尽管看似不可比,但这两类框架的比较是可行且有信息量的,揭示了二阶表示选择对实际不确定性感知性能的影响。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Epistemic uncertainty in neural networks is commonly modeled using two second-order paradigms: distribution-based representations, which rely on posterior parameter distributions, and set-based representations based on credal sets (convex sets of probability distributions). These frameworks are often regarded as fundamentally non-comparable due to differing semantics, assumptions, and evaluation practices, leaving their relative merits unclear. Empirical comparisons are further confounded by variations in the underlying predictive models. To clarify this issue, we present a controlled comparative study enabling principled, like-for-like evaluation of the two paradigms. Both representations are constructed from the same finite collection of predictive distributions generated by a shared neural network, isolating representational effects from predictive accuracy. Our study evaluates each representation through the lens of 3 uncertainty measures across 8 benchmarks, including selective prediction and out-of-distribution detection, spanning 6 underlying predictive models and 10 independent runs per configuration. Our results show that meaningful comparison between these seemingly non-comparable frameworks is both feasible and informative, providing insights into how second-order representation choices impact practical uncertainty-aware performance.

不确定性建模可信集神经网络评估对比

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