arXiv:2602.23012cs.IRcs.LG2026-02被引 1

用分层量化序列预测连续值,提升推荐系统精准度。

Sequential Regression for Continuous Value Prediction using Residual Quantization

  • 将连续值分解为有序量化码的递归叠加,逐级细化误差。
  • 在LTV、观看时长和GMV任务上均超越现有方法,效果稳定。
  • 适合工业级推荐系统中复杂分布的连续变量预测场景。

连续值预测在大规模推荐系统中至关重要,涵盖用户观看时长预测和电商交易中的总商品价值(GMV)估算等任务。然而,由于数据分布高度复杂且呈长尾特征,传统生成方法依赖刚性参数分布假设,难以适应真实数据。过于简化的假设无法捕捉现实复杂性,而更复杂的假设又常面临可扩展性和泛化能力差的问题。为此,我们提出基于残差量化(RQ)的序列学习框架,将目标连续值表示为按序排列的量化码之和,通过从粗到细的递归预测逐步降低量化误差。引入一种表征学习目标,使量化码嵌入空间与目标值的序数结构对齐,从而捕捉连续表示并进一步提升预测精度。我们在公开基准上对生命周期价值(LTV)和观看时长预测进行了广泛评估,并在短视频推荐平台开展大规模在线实验,验证了该方法在多种连续值预测任务中的优越性能与强泛化能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Continuous value prediction plays a crucial role in industrial-scale recommendation systems, including tasks such as predicting users' watch-time and estimating the gross merchandise value (GMV) in e-commerce transactions. However, it remains challenging due to the highly complex and long-tailed nature of the data distributions. Existing generative approaches rely on rigid parametric distribution assumptions, which fundamentally limits their performance when such assumptions misalign with real-world data. Overly simplified forms cannot adequately model real-world complexities, while more intricate assumptions often suffer from poor scalability and generalization. To address these challenges, we propose a residual quantization (RQ)-based sequence learning framework that represents target continuous values as a sum of ordered quantization codes, predicted recursively from coarse to fine granularity with diminishing quantization errors. We introduce a representation learning objective that aligns RQ code embedding space with the ordinal structure of target values, allowing the model to capture continuous representations for quantization codes and further improving prediction accuracy. We perform extensive evaluations on public benchmarks for lifetime value (LTV) and watch-time prediction, alongside a large-scale online experiment for GMV prediction on an industrial short-video recommendation platform. The results consistently show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, while demonstrating strong generalization across diverse continuous value prediction tasks in recommendation systems.

连续预测残差量化推荐系统序列建模

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