arXiv:2602.23146cs.LGcs.CV2026-02

用地面观测和遥感数据,恢复了美国10米级气象细节。

Partial recovery of meter-scale surface weather

  • 结合站点数据与遥感信息,推断10米分辨率气象场。
  • 风速误差降29%,温湿误差降6%,空间变异解释力更强。
  • 可捕捉城市热岛、地表蒸散差异等物理特征,适合气候研究者。

近地表大气条件因土地覆盖和地形在数十至数百米尺度上存在显著差异,但当前天气分析与预报中缺失此类细粒度变化。这种米级变异性究竟是不可预测的混沌行为,还是可通过地表特征与大尺度大气强迫预测?本文表明,近地表气象的大量物理一致成分可从现有观测中统计恢复。通过将粗分辨率大气状态与稀疏地面站观测及高分辨率地球观测数据结合,我们推断出美国本土10米分辨率的近地表风速、温度和湿度连续场。相比ERA5,推断场使风速误差降低29%,温度与露点误差降低6%,并在固定时间步长下解释了更多空间方差。结果呈现出可物理解释的结构,包括城市热岛、蒸散发驱动的湿度差异以及不同地表覆盖下的风速差异。研究拓展了天气建模边界,展示了在大陆尺度上实现米级气象推断的可行性;更广泛而言,揭示了将粗粒度动力模型与静态精细特征结合,可发现地球系统中此前未解析的组成部分。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale variability reflects irreducibly chaotic dynamics or contains a component predictable from surface characteristics and large-scale atmospheric forcing. Here we show that a substantial, physically coherent component of meter-scale near-surface weather is statistically recoverable from existing observations. By conditioning coarse atmospheric state on sparse surface station measurements and high-resolution Earth observation data, we infer spatially continuous fields of near-surface wind, temperature, and humidity at 10 m resolution across the contiguous United States. Relative to ERA5, the inferred fields reduce wind error by 29% and temperature and dewpoint error by 6%, while explaining substantially more spatial variance at fixed time steps. They also exhibit physically interpretable structure, including urban heat islands, evapotranspiration-driven humidity contrasts, and wind speed differences across land cover types. Our findings expand the frontier of weather modeling by demonstrating a computationally feasible approach to continental-scale meter-resolution inference. More broadly, they illustrate how conditioning coarse dynamical models on static fine-scale features can reveal previously unresolved components of the Earth system.

气象推断10米分辨率地表特征城市热岛

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