arXiv:2602.24083cs.LGmath.PR2026-02

用神经随机微分方程加速点过程的隐变量推断,速度提升百倍以上。

Neural Diffusion Intensity Models for Point Process Data

  • 用神经SDE建模点过程潜强度,通过漂移修正保持扩散结构。
  • 在真实与合成数据上准确恢复强度动态,推断速度比MCMC快上百倍。
  • 适合需要快速、高精度点过程建模的研究者,如金融高频交易或神经科学。

Cox过程通过潜在随机强度建模过分散点过程数据,但强度模型的非参数估计及强度路径的后验推断通常不可解析,依赖昂贵的马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)方法。本文提出神经扩散强度模型(Neural Diffusion Intensity Models),一种基于神经随机微分方程(SDE)的变分框架。关键理论结果基于滤流扩张,证明观测点过程数据后,潜强度的扩散结构仍保持,且漂移项可显式修正。这确保了变分族包含真实后验,当模型容量足够时,ELBO最大化等价于最大似然估计。我们设计了可复用编码器架构,将变长事件序列映射为后验强度路径,通过模拟修正后的SDE实现单次前向传播,取代重复的MCMC采样。在合成与真实数据上的实验表明,该方法能准确恢复潜强度动态与后验路径,相比基于MCMC的方法实现数量级加速。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Cox processes model overdispersed point process data via a latent stochastic intensity, but both nonparametric estimation of the intensity model and posterior inference over intensity paths are typically intractable, relying on expensive MCMC methods. We introduce Neural Diffusion Intensity Models, a variational framework for Cox processes driven by neural SDEs. Our key theoretical result, based on enlargement of filtrations, shows that conditioning on point process observations preserves the diffusion structure of the latent intensity with an explicit drift correction. This guarantees the variational family contains the true posterior, so that ELBO maximization coincides with maximum likelihood estimation under sufficient model capacity. We design an amortized encoder architecture that maps variable-length event sequences to posterior intensity paths by simulating the drift-corrected SDE, replacing repeated MCMC runs with a single forward pass. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate accurate recovery of latent intensity dynamics and posterior paths, with orders-of-magnitude speedups over MCMC-based methods.

点过程扩散模型变分推断神经SDE

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