用时频分解提升热力需求预测精度,降低36%~43%误差。
A Deep Learning Framework for Heat Demand Forecasting using Time-Frequency Representations of Decomposed Features
- 通过连续小波变换分解需求与气象数据,提取时频特征输入CNN
- 在丹麦、德国多个城市数据上实现95%准确率,误差降低36%~43%
- 适合能源系统优化、智能供热管理等实际应用场景
区域供暖系统是可持续向地理区域居民供能的关键基础设施,其高效运行依赖于对木材、天然气、电力和太阳能等多种能源的协同调度。供需匹配不仅关乎供热可靠性,也影响碳排放控制与设备寿命。然而,受复杂非线性用热模式和外部因素影响,实现高精度多步预测仍具挑战。本文提出一种基于时频表示的深度学习框架,用于日前热力需求预测。通过对历史需求及外部气象因素进行连续小波变换分解,使卷积神经网络能够捕捉传统时域模型难以获取的层次化时间特征。我们在丹麦三个城区、一个丹麦城市及一个德国城市的多年数据上,系统评估该方法与统计基线、先进Transformer模型以及新兴基础模型的性能。结果表明,相比最强基线,平均绝对误差降低36%至43%,年测试集上最高达到95%的预测准确率。定性与统计分析进一步验证了模型在追踪剧烈波动需求峰值方面的稳健性与可靠性。本工作不仅提供高性能预测架构,还揭示了最优特征组合的关键洞见,为现代能源应用提供可验证解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
District Heating Systems are essential infrastructure for delivering heat to consumers across a geographic region sustainably, yet efficient management relies on optimizing diverse energy sources, such as wood, gas, electricity, and solar, in response to fluctuating demand. Aligning supply with demand is critical not only for ensuring reliable heat distribution but also for minimizing carbon emissions and extending infrastructure lifespan through lower operating temperatures. However, accurate multi-step forecasting to support these goals remains challenging due to complex, non-linear usage patterns and external dependencies. In this work, we propose a novel deep learning framework for day-ahead heat demand prediction that leverages time-frequency representations of historical data. By applying Continuous Wavelet Transform to decomposed demand and external meteorological factors, our approach enables Convolutional Neural Networks to learn hierarchical temporal features that are often inaccessible to standard time domain models. We systematically evaluate this method against statistical baselines, state-of-the-art Transformers, and emerging foundation models using multi-year data from three distinct Danish districts, a Danish city, and a German city. The results show a significant advancement, reducing the Mean Absolute Error by 36% to 43% compared to the strongest baselines, achieving forecasting accuracy of up to 95% across annual test datasets. Qualitative and statistical analyses further confirm the accuracy and robustness by reliably tracking volatile demand peaks where others fail. This work contributes both a high-performance forecasting architecture and critical insights into optimal feature composition, offering a validated solution for modern energy applications.
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