无需标签和源数据,模型可持续学习新风电场的发电预测。
FreeGNN: Continual Source-Free Graph Neural Network Adaptation for Renewable Energy Forecasting
- 用师生协同+记忆回放,实现无监督持续学习。
- 在三个真实数据集上,风电预测误差低于0.523 RMSE。
- 适合隐私受限或标签难获取的能源系统部署。
准确预测可再生能源发电量对电网高效管理与可持续电力规划至关重要。然而,传统监督模型通常需目标站点的标注数据,而这类数据可能因隐私、成本或物流限制无法获取。本文提出 FreeGNN,一种持续性无源图域自适应框架,可在不依赖源数据或目标标签的情况下,对未见过的可再生能源站点进行自适应预测。该方法结合时空图神经网络骨干网络、师生策略、记忆回放机制以缓解灾难性遗忘、基于图的正则化以保持空间相关性,以及感知漂移的动态加权方案,在流式更新中自适应非平稳环境条件,同时保证模型鲁棒性与稳定性。我们在 GEFCom2012、Solar PV 与 Wind SCADA 三个真实世界数据集上进行了广泛实验,涵盖多个站点、时间分辨率及气象特征。消融实验证明,记忆模块、图正则化、漂移感知适应与师生策略均显著提升整体性能。结果表明,FreeGNN 在 GEFCom 数据集上取得 MAE 5.237、RMSE 7.123,Solar PV 数据集上为 MAE 1.107、RMSE 1.512,Wind SCADA 数据集上为 MAE 0.382、RMSE 0.523。这些表现验证了其在无源、持续学习场景下的精准与鲁棒预测能力,凸显其在自适应可再生能源系统中的实际部署潜力。代码已公开于:https://github.com/AraoufBh/FreeGNN。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate forecasting of renewable energy generation is essential for efficient grid management and sustainable power planning. However, traditional supervised models often require access to labeled data from the target site, which may be unavailable due to privacy, cost, or logistical constraints. In this work, we propose FreeGNN, a Continual Source-Free Graph Domain Adaptation framework that enables adaptive forecasting on unseen renewable energy sites without requiring source data or target labels. Our approach integrates a spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (GNN) backbone with a teacher--student strategy, a memory replay mechanism to mitigate catastrophic forgetting, graph-based regularization to preserve spatial correlations, and a drift-aware weighting scheme to dynamically adjust adaptation strength during streaming updates. This combination allows the model to continuously adapt to non-stationary environmental conditions while maintaining robustness and stability. We conduct extensive experiments on three real-world datasets: GEFCom2012, Solar PV, and Wind SCADA, encompassing multiple sites, temporal resolutions, and meteorological features. The ablation study confirms that each component memory, graph regularization, drift-aware adaptation, and teacher--student strategy contributes significantly to overall performance. The experiments show that FreeGNN achieves an MAE of 5.237 and an RMSE of 7.123 on the GEFCom dataset, an MAE of 1.107 and an RMSE of 1.512 on the Solar PV dataset, and an MAE of 0.382 and an RMSE of 0.523 on the Wind SCADA dataset. These results demonstrate its ability to achieve accurate and robust forecasts in a source-free, continual learning setting, highlighting its potential for real-world deployment in adaptive renewable energy systems. For reproducibility, implementation details are available at: https://github.com/AraoufBh/FreeGNN.
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