提出新方法让预测区间更短更准,自动适应数据分布变化。
Co-optimization for Adaptive Conformal Prediction
- 联合优化预测中心和半径,动态调整区间位置和大小。
- 在真实和合成数据上平均区间长度缩短15%以上,覆盖效果更好。
- 适合需要精准置信区间的机器学习应用,如医疗和金融预测。
共优化自适应合约定理(CoCP)框架通过联合优化中心函数m(x)和半径函数h(x),提升合约定理的效率。该方法交替执行:(i) 基于折叠绝对残差进行分位数回归学习h(x),(ii) 使用可微的软覆盖目标函数微调m(x),梯度集中在当前边界附近,无需估计完整条件密度即可修正偏移。通过归一化非符合性得分的分裂合约定理校准,保证有限样本边际有效性。理论分析表明,在标准正则条件下,当估计误差和光滑项趋于零时,CoCP渐近逼近目标覆盖率下的最短条件区间。在合成与真实基准测试中,CoCP始终生成更短的区间,并达到最先进的条件覆盖率表现。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, but standard conformal regression intervals can be inefficient under heteroscedasticity and skewness. In particular, popular constructions such as conformalized quantile regression (CQR) often inherit a fixed notion of center and enforce equal-tailed errors, which can displace the interval away from high-density regions and produce unnecessarily wide sets. We propose Co-optimization for Adaptive Conformal Prediction (CoCP), a framework that learns prediction intervals by jointly optimizing a center $m(x)$ and a radius $h(x)$.CoCP alternates between (i) learning $h(x)$ via quantile regression on the folded absolute residual around the current center, and (ii) refining $m(x)$ with a differentiable soft-coverage objective whose gradients concentrate near the current boundaries, effectively correcting mis-centering without estimating the full conditional density. Finite-sample marginal validity is guaranteed by split-conformal calibration with a normalized nonconformity score. Theory characterizes the population fixed point of the soft objective and shows that, under standard regularity conditions, CoCP asymptotically approaches the length-minimizing conditional interval at the target coverage level as the estimation error and smoothing vanish. Experiments on synthetic and real benchmarks demonstrate that CoCP yields consistently shorter intervals and achieves state-of-the-art conditional-coverage diagnostics.
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