arXiv:2603.02616stat.APcs.AI2026-03

用可解释的AI模型从心电图中筛查心脏结构疾病,性能优于黑箱方法。

Detecting Structural Heart Disease from Electrocardiograms via a Generalized Additive Model of Interpretable Foundation-Model Predictors

  • 将临床有意义的心电图特征与广义加性模型结合,实现透明风险分析。
  • 在8万+数据上比顶尖深度学习模型提升0.98% AUROC、1.41% F1得分。
  • 仅需30%数据即达良好效果,适合医疗场景中对可解释性的高要求。

结构性心脏病(SHD)患病率高但大量病例未被诊断,早期检测常受限于超声心动图(ECHO)成本高、可及性差。近年研究显示,基于人工智能的心电图(ECG)分析可检测SHD,提供可扩展替代方案。然而现有方法均为全黑箱模型,限制了可解释性与临床应用。为此,本文提出一种可解释且高效的框架,将临床有意义的ECG基础模型预测因子整合进广义加性模型,实现透明的风险归因,同时保持强预测性能。基于包含8万余对ECG-ECHO的EchoNext基准测试,该方法在AUROC上相对最新深度学习基线提升0.98%,AUPRC提升1.01%,F1分数提升1.41%;即使仅使用30%训练数据,性能仍略优。亚组分析表明其在异质人群中的稳健表现,各变量函数估计提供了传统心电图诊断与SHD风险关系的可解释洞察。本工作展示了经典统计建模与现代AI的互补范式,为可解释、高性能、临床可用的ECG-SHD筛查提供新路径。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Structural heart disease (SHD) is a prevalent condition with many undiagnosed cases, and early detection is often limited by the high cost and accessibility constraints of echocardiography (ECHO). Recent studies show that artificial intelligence (AI)-based analysis of electrocardiograms (ECGs) can detect SHD, offering a scalable alternative. However, existing methods are fully black-box models, limiting interpretability and clinical adoption. To address these challenges, we propose an interpretable and effective framework that integrates clinically meaningful ECG foundation-model predictors within a generalized additive model, enabling transparent risk attribution while maintaining strong predictive performance. Using the EchoNext benchmark of over 80,000 ECG-ECHO pairs, the method demonstrates relative improvements of +0.98% in AUROC, +1.01% in AUPRC, and +1.41% in F1 score over the latest state-of-the-art deep-learning baseline, while achieving slightly better performance even with only 30% of the training data. Subgroup analyses confirm robust performance across heterogeneous populations, and the estimated entry-wise functions provide interpretable insights into the relationships between risks of traditional ECG diagnoses and SHD. This work illustrates a complementary paradigm between classical statistical modeling and modern AI, offering a pathway to interpretable, high-performing, and clinically actionable ECG-based SHD screening.

心电图可解释AI心脏病广义加性模型

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