让众人协作发现因果关系,提升模型可靠性。
Causal Discovery Should Embrace the Wisdom of the Crowd
- 通过众包方式收集多人的因果知识并整合。
- 利用专家意见与大模型增强信息获取效率。
- 适合需要多领域协作的复杂系统建模。
本文倡导一种新兴的因果学习范式——集体智慧。近年来,政府、产业和学术界的发展表明,去中心化、基于众包的因果建模正逐步兴起,将分散在多方的因果知识系统性地提取并融入学习流程。在此范式下,因果学习转化为分布式决策问题:每位参与者贡献部分且可能带有噪声的知识,而集体贡献共同构建全局因果结构。该方向得益于众包平台、专家知识挖掘、聚合技术以及大语言模型(LLM)辅助的信息获取进步。其潜力已在早期研究和实际应用中显现。基于此趋势,我们提出一个涵盖知识抽取、建模、聚合与优化的众包因果学习框架,并探讨该范式带来的机遇与挑战,呼吁在因果学习、群体智能、人机交互与决策科学间开展跨学科合作。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper argues for recognizing an emerging paradigm of causal learning by wisdom of the crowd. Recent developments in government, industry, and research point to the rise of decentralized and crowd-based approaches within causal modeling, where causal knowledge distributed across many contributors can be systematically elicited and integrated with causal learning workflows. In this paradigm, causal learning becomes a distributed decision-making problem: each participant contributes partial and potentially noisy knowledge, while collective contributions help construct a global causal structure. This direction is enabled by advances in crowdsourcing platforms, expert knowledge elicitation, aggregation techniques, and large language model (LLM)-augmented information acquisition. Its promise is increasingly visible in early research and emerging real-world practices. Building on this momentum, we outline a framework for crowd-based causal learning spanning elicitation, modeling, aggregation, and optimization. We further discuss the opportunities and challenges introduced by this paradigm and call for interdisciplinary collaboration across causal learning, collective intelligence, human-AI interaction, and decision science.
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