arXiv:2603.02840cs.LGstat.ML2026-03被引 2

通过数据混合重划分,让时间序列模型更精准适配新领域。

Adapting Time Series Foundation Models through Data Mixtures

  • 用贝叶斯混合重新划分数据,识别子领域分布
  • 在子域上独立微调,提升零样本预测性能
  • 适合有多个相关数据集但分布复杂的新领域

时间序列基础模型(TSFMs)在零样本预测中表现优异,但在预训练未覆盖的新领域性能下降。当从业者拥有相关数据集时,如何有效微调模型成为关键问题。传统方法对每个数据集单独微调或统一微调所有数据,但后者可能因数据异质性导致效果不佳。本文提出MixFT方法:基于贝叶斯混合将数据重新划分为更同质的子域,并在每个子域上独立微调。该策略使模型能聚焦于特定分布特征,实验表明其优于单模块统一微调和每数据集独立微调,在多种真实时间序列数据集上实现更高预测精度。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have become increasingly popular for zero-shot forecasting. However, for a new time series domain not fully covered by the pretraining set, performance can suffer. Therefore, when a practitioner cares about a new domain and has access to a set of related datasets, the question arises: how best to fine-tune a TSFM to improve zero-shot forecasting? A typical approach to this type of problem is to fine-tune a LoRA module on all datasets or separately on each dataset. Tuning a separate module on each dataset allows for the specialisation of the TSFM to different types of data distribution, by selecting differing combinations of per-dataset modules for different time series contexts. However, we find that, using per-dataset modules might not be optimal, since a time series dataset can contain data from several types of distributions, i.e. sub-domains. This can be due to the distribution shifting or having differing distributions for different dimensions of the time series. Hence, we propose MixFT which re-divides the data using Bayesian mixtures into sets that best represent the sub-domains present in the data, and fine-tunes separately on each of these sets. This re-division of the data ensures that each set is more homogeneous, leading to fine-tuned modules focused on specific sub-domains. Our experiments show that MixFT performs better than per-dataset methods and when fine-tuning a single module on all the data. This suggests that by re-partitioning the data to represent sub-domains we can better specialise TSFMs to improve zero-shot forecasting.

时间序列微调数据混合

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