用机器学习框架同步优化绿色燃料系统设计与实时运行,提升效率降低成本。
Optimal trajectory-guided stochastic co-optimization for e-fuel system design and real-time operation
- 基于全局运行轨迹训练单一智能体,统一处理不同配置下的动态调度。
- 在欧洲4个站点验证,碳中性甲醇成本为1.0-1.2美元/公斤,多数选址宜低于50兆瓦负载。
- 适合需要快速评估系统设计与运行策略的能源项目规划者和研究者。
绿色燃料是支持净零转型的长期能源载体,但可再生能源不确定性带来的巨大组合式设计-运行空间使数学规划难以用于协同优化。本文提出MasCOR框架,一种机器学习辅助的协同优化方法,通过学习全局运行轨迹实现系统设计与动态运行的统一建模。该框架编码系统设计与可再生能源趋势,单个智能体即可泛化于多种配置与场景,显著简化不确定性下的协同优化过程。与先进强化学习基线对比,其性能接近最优,计算成本远低于数学规划,支持在协同优化循环中快速并行评估设计方案。应用于欧洲四个潜在站点的电子甲醇生产,结果显示多数地点通过将系统负荷控制在50兆瓦以下可实现碳中性甲醇生产,成本为1.0–1.2美元/公斤;而法国敦刻尔克因可再生能源有限且电网电价高,更适合200兆瓦以上负荷并扩展储能以利用动态电网交易和氢气市场化销售。该框架为从系统设计到实时运行提供因地制宜的决策支持。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
E-fuels are promising long-term energy carriers supporting the net-zero transition. However, the large combinatorial design-operation spaces under renewable uncertainty make the use of mathematical programming impractical for co-optimizing e-fuel production systems. Here, we present MasCOR, a machine-learning-assisted co-optimization framework that learns from global operational trajectories. By encoding system design and renewable trends, a single MasCOR agent generalizes dynamic operation across diverse configurations and scenarios, substantially simplifying design-operation co-optimization under uncertainty. Benchmark comparisons against state-of-the-art reinforcement learning baselines demonstrate near-optimal performance, while computational costs are substantially lower than those of mathematical programming, enabling rapid parallel evaluation of designs within the co-optimization loop. This framework enables rapid screening of feasible design spaces together with corresponding operational policies. When applied to four potential European sites targeting e-methanol production, MasCOR shows that most locations benefit from reducing system load below 50 MW to achieve carbon-neutral methanol production, with production costs of 1.0-1.2 USD per kg. In contrast, Dunkirk (France), with limited renewable availability and high grid prices, favors system loads above 200 MW and expanded storage to exploit dynamic grid exchange and hydrogen sales to the market. These results underscore the value of the MasCOR framework for site-specific guidance from system design to real-time operation.
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