区分生态系统的长期条件与短期驱动,提升碳通量预测精度。
Role-Aware Conditional Inference for Spatiotemporal Ecosystem Carbon Flux Prediction
- 分离慢变环境条件与快变动态驱动,分角色建模
- 在湿地与农田中对多种碳通量预测效果优于基线
- 适合跨区域、异质性强的生态碳循环研究
准确预测陆地生态系统碳通量(如CO₂、GPP和CH₄)对于理解全球碳循环及其影响至关重要。然而,由于强烈的时空异质性,预测仍具挑战:生态系统通量响应受缓慢变化的系统状态约束,而短期波动则由高频动态强迫驱动。现有学习方法将环境协变量视为同质输入空间,隐含假设全局响应函数,导致在异质生态系统间泛化能力差。本文提出角色感知条件推理(RACI),一个过程引导的学习框架,将碳通量预测建模为条件推理问题。RACI采用层次化时间编码,分离慢变调节因子与快变驱动因子,并引入角色感知的空间检索机制,为每种功能角色提供功能相似且地理邻近的上下文。通过显式建模这些不同功能角色,RACI可在不训练独立本地模型或依赖固定空间结构的情况下,适应多样环境格局下的预测。我们在多种生态系统类型(湿地与农业系统)、碳通量(CO₂、GPP、CH₄)及数据源(过程模拟与观测数据)上评估RACI。在所有设置中,RACI均显著优于主流时空基线,在明显环境异质性下展现更优准确性与空间泛化能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes (e.g., CO$_2$, GPP, and CH$_4$) is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle and managing its impacts. However, prediction remains challenging due to strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity: ecosystem flux responses are constrained by slowly varying regime conditions, while short-term fluctuations are driven by high-frequency dynamic forcings. Most existing learning-based approaches treat environmental covariates as a homogeneous input space, implicitly assuming a global response function, which leads to brittle generalization across heterogeneous ecosystems. In this work, we propose Role-Aware Conditional Inference (RACI), a process-informed learning framework that formulates ecosystem flux prediction as a conditional inference problem. RACI employs hierarchical temporal encoding to disentangle slow regime conditioners from fast dynamic drivers, and incorporates role-aware spatial retrieval that supplies functionally similar and geographically local context for each role. By explicitly modeling these distinct functional roles, RACI enables a model to adapt its predictions across diverse environmental regimes without training separate local models or relying on fixed spatial structures. We evaluate RACI across multiple ecosystem types (wetlands and agricultural systems), carbon fluxes (CO$_2$, GPP, CH$_4$), and data sources, including both process-based simulations and observational measurements. Across all settings, RACI consistently outperforms competitive spatiotemporal baselines, demonstrating improved accuracy and spatial generalization under pronounced environmental heterogeneity.
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