用临床数据+可解释集成模型,精准预测阿尔茨海默病。
An Explainable Ensemble Framework for Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Using Structured Clinical and Cognitive Data
- 融合多类临床数据,用五种集成算法+深度网络构建预测框架。
- XGBoost等模型在准确率、敏感度上表现最优,F1超0.92。
- 通过SHAP分析揭示MMSE和功能年龄是关键影响因素,适合临床使用。
阿尔茨海默病(AD)的早期准确检测因症状隐匿、进展缓慢而极具挑战。本研究提出一种可解释的集成学习框架,利用结构化临床、生活方式、代谢等特征对个体进行阿尔茨海默病与非阿尔茨海默病分类。流程包括严格预处理、先进特征工程、SMOTE-Tomek混合类别平衡方法,以及五种集成算法(随机森林、XGBoost、LightGBM、CatBoost、Extra Trees)与深度神经网络的优化建模。采用分层验证防止数据泄露,最优模型在完全未见测试集上评估。集成方法性能优于深度学习,其中XGBoost、随机森林和软投票模型在准确率、灵敏度及F1分数上表现最佳。可解释性技术(如SHAP、特征重要性分析)揭示了MMSE、功能评估年龄及多个工程交互特征为最关键决定因素。结果表明,该框架提供了一种可靠且透明的阿尔茨海默病预测方法,具备良好的临床决策支持潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Early and accurate detection of Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains a major challenge in medical diagnosis due to its subtle onset and progressive nature. This research introduces an explainable ensemble learning Framework designed to classify individuals as Alzheimer's or Non-Alzheimer's using structured clinical, lifestyle, metabolic, and lifestyle features. The workflow incorporates rigorous preprocessing, advanced feature engineering, SMOTE-Tomek hybrid class balancing, and optimized modeling using five ensemble algorithms-Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and Extra Trees-alongside a deep artificial neural network. Model selection was performed using stratified validation to prevent leakage, and the best-performing model was evaluated on a fully unseen test set. Ensemble methods achieved superior performance over deep learning, with XGBoost, Random Forest, and Soft Voting showing the strongest accuracy, sensitivity, and F1-score profiles. Explainability techniques, including SHAP and feature importance analysis, highlighted MMSE, Functional Assessment Age, and several engineered interaction features as the most influential determinants. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework provides a reliable and transparent approach to Alzheimer's disease prediction, offering strong potential for clinical decision support applications.
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