arXiv:2603.04461cs.LGcs.AI2026-03

融合多源气象数据与物理规律的神经网络,提升降雨短时预报精度。

MAD-SmaAt-GNet: A Multimodal Advection-Guided Neural Network for Precipitation Nowcasting

  • 引入多变量编码器和物理引导平流模块增强模型表征能力
  • 四步预测下均方误差降低8.9%,短时预报效果更优
  • 适合需要高精度、低延迟天气预报的应用场景

降水短时预报(nowcasting)仍主要依赖物理方程的数值求解,计算成本高且未能充分利用海量气象数据。深度学习模型在该任务中展现出良好潜力,兼具准确性与计算效率。其中,卷积神经网络(CNN)对图像到图像的预测任务尤为有效。SmaAt-UNet是一种轻量级CNN架构,在降水预报中表现优异。本文提出多模态平流引导小注意力网络(MAD-SmaAt-GNet),在核心SmaAt-UNet基础上进行了两项改进:(i) 增加一个编码器以学习多类气象变量;(ii) 集成基于物理的平流组件,确保预测结果符合物理规律。实验表明,两项改进单独使用即能提升降水预测性能,联合使用进一步增益。在四步预测(最多四小时提前量)中,相比基准SmaAt-UNet,MAD-SmaAt-GNet将均方误差(MSE)降低8.9%。此外,多模态输入在短时预报中优势显著,而平流组件则在短、长预报时段均提升性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Precipitation nowcasting (short-term forecasting) is still often performed using numerical solvers for physical equations, which are computationally expensive and make limited use of the large volumes of available weather data. Deep learning models have shown strong potential for precipitation nowcasting, offering both accuracy and computational efficiency. Among these models, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are particularly effective for image-to-image prediction tasks. The SmaAt-UNet is a lightweight CNN based architecture that has demonstrated strong performance for precipitation nowcasting. This paper introduces the Multimodal Advection-Guided Small Attention GNet (MAD-SmaAt-GNet), which extends the core SmaAt-UNet by (i) incorporating an additional encoder to learn from multiple weather variables and (ii) integrating a physics-based advection component to ensure physically consistent predictions. We show that each extension individually improves rainfall forecasts and that their combination yields further gains. MAD-SmaAt-GNet reduces the mean squared error (MSE) by 8.9% compared with the baseline SmaAt-UNet for four-step precipitation forecasting up to four hours ahead. Additionally, experiments indicate that multimodal inputs are particularly beneficial for short lead times, while the advection-based component enhances performance across both short and long forecasting horizons.

降水预报多模态物理引导

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