arXiv:2603.04585cs.RO2026-03

让机器人在陌生环境更安全,精准预测路径点并判断不确定性。

ELLIPSE: Evidential Learning for Robust Waypoints and Uncertainties

  • 用深度证据回归同时输出路径点和多变量不确定性分布。
  • 实测在楼梯场景中任务成功率提升,不确定性覆盖更准确。
  • 适合需要高安全性的机器人路径规划应用。

在开放世界、安全性要求高的场景中,鲁棒的路径点预测对移动机器人至关重要。尽管模仿学习方法在实践中表现优异,但其易受分布偏移影响:在陌生状态中会过度自信。本文提出ELLIPSE,基于多变量深度证据回归,在一次前向传播中输出路径点和多变量Student-t预测分布。为缓解视角与姿态扰动引起的过度自信,引入轻量级域增强策略,无需额外示范即可合成合理的视角/姿态变化。为提升环境/域偏移(如未见楼梯)下的不确定性可靠性,采用后处理等距校准(isotonic recalibration)对概率积分变换(PIT)值进行校正,确保部署时预测集仍具合理性。实验聚焦楼梯路径点预测,真实世界测试表明,相比基线,ELLIPSE显著提升任务成功率与不确定性覆盖率。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Robust waypoint prediction is crucial for mobile robots operating in open-world, safety-critical settings. While Imitation Learning (IL) methods have demonstrated great success in practice, they are susceptible to distribution shifts: the policy can become dangerously overconfident in unfamiliar states. In this paper, we present \textit{ELLIPSE}, a method building on multivariate deep evidential regression to output waypoints and multivariate Student-t predictive distributions in a single forward pass. To reduce covariate-shift-induced overconfidence under viewpoint and pose perturbations near expert trajectories, we introduce a lightweight domain augmentation procedure that synthesizes plausible viewpoint/pose variations without collecting additional demonstrations. To improve uncertainty reliability under environment/domain shift (e.g., unseen staircases), we apply a post-hoc isotonic recalibration on probability integral transform (PIT) values so that prediction sets remain plausible during deployment. We ground the discussion and experiments in staircase waypoint prediction, where obtaining robust waypoint and uncertainty is pivotal. Extensive real world evaluations show that \textit{ELLIPSE} improves both task success rate and uncertainty coverage compared to baselines.

路径规划不确定性估计模仿学习机器人

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