Aura通过多维外部信息融合,提升航班维修时间序列预测精度。
Aura: Universal Multi-dimensional Exogenous Integration for Aviation Time Series
- 按交互模式分三类编码外部因素,增强模型对复杂影响的捕捉能力。
- 在南航三年数据集上超越所有基线,对波音777和空客A320均表现优异。
- 适合航空安全、运维预测等需要融合多源信息的工业场景。
时间序列预测在工业应用中需求日益增长,准确预测对决策至关重要。除数值时间序列外,实际场景中的可靠预测还需整合多样化的外部因素。这些外部信息常为多维度甚至多模态,引入异质交互,传统单模态模型难以捕捉。本文以航空维修场景为背景,识别出三种不同类型的外部因素及其独特的交互方式。基于此实证发现,提出Aura框架,通过显式组织与编码异质外部信息,依据其与目标序列的交互模式进行处理。具体而言,Aura采用定制化的三重编码机制,将异质特征嵌入主流时间序列模型,实现非序列上下文的无缝融合。在覆盖波音777与空客A320机队、为期三年的南航大规模工业数据集上,大量实验表明,Aura在所有基线中持续达到最优性能,展现出卓越适应性。研究结果凸显Aura作为航空安全与可靠性通用增强工具的潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting has witnessed an increasing demand across diverse industrial applications, where accurate predictions are pivotal for informed decision-making. Beyond numerical time series data, reliable forecasting in practical scenarios requires integrating diverse exogenous factors. Such exogenous information is often multi-dimensional or even multimodal, introducing heterogeneous interactions that unimodal time series models struggle to capture. In this paper, we delve into an aviation maintenance scenario and identify three distinct types of exogenous factors that influence temporal dynamics through distinct interaction modes. Based on this empirical insight, we propose Aura, a universal framework that explicitly organizes and encodes heterogeneous external information according to its interaction mode with the target time series. Specifically, Aura utilizes a tailored tripartite encoding mechanism to embed heterogeneous features into well-established time series models, ensuring seamless integration of non-sequential context. Extensive experiments on a large-scale, three-year industrial dataset from China Southern Airlines, covering the Boeing 777 and Airbus A320 fleets, demonstrate that Aura consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across all baselines and exhibits superior adaptability. Our findings highlight Aura's potential as a general-purpose enhancement for aviation safety and reliability.
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